The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, set to begin on June 1 and end on Nov. 30, is forecasted to experience above-average storm activity. The forecast anticipates 17 named storms, with nine expected to develop into hurricanes and four likely to reach major hurricane status, defined as Category 3 or higher.
This level of activity represents about 125% of the average observed between 1991 and 2020.
Anna Pergerson (pictured above left), managing director and head of catastrophe R&D at Howden Re, said there is a shift in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics that increasingly supports greater storm intensity and longevity.
“While ENSO phases remain a valuable indicator of seasonal hurricane activity, our data shows that actual losses are more closely influenced by storm tracks, landfall locations, and the level of community preparedness,” Pergerson said.
She referenced the last three years, when Florida experienced major hurricanes starting with Ian in 2022, but impacts to the Florida market varied widely from storm to storm.
Howden Re attributed the elevated storm activity to abnormally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which provide necessary energy for storm development and intensification. Higher ocean temperatures contribute more heat and moisture, creating conditions favorable for stronger and longer-lasting storms.
In its 2025 forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is projecting a 60% probability of an above-normal season. NOAA’s outlook calls for 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher.
Additionally, ENSO is currently in a neutral phase and is forecasted to remain neutral throughout the season. Historically, neutral ENSO conditions lead to slightly lower but still heightened hurricane activity, similar to the effects of La Niña.
Howden Re pointed to broad agreement among major forecasting institutions, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), and CSU, that these conditions support increased activity this year.
Justin Roth (pictured above right), associate director of catastrophe analytics R&D at Howden Re, noted that a persistently positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, combined with a neutral-to-La Niña–like ENSO pattern, is expected to reduce vertical wind shear and promote storm development during the peak of the hurricane season.
“Although ENSO is currently neutral and forecasted to remain so, we still anticipate elevated, though somewhat moderated, hurricane activity,” Roth said.
When compared to prior seasons, the 2025 forecast stands out. The projected activity levels exceed the 30-year average but are slightly below the intensity recorded in 2024, which saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
Analysts note that although the year-over-year comparison shows a slight decrease in expected numbers, the overall outlook remains for a season well above historical norms.
In addition to these factors, Howden Re noted that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMRWF) AI-enhanced seasonal model, which performed accurately in 2023 and 2024, is also signaling an active season. The model’s consistent track record adds further support to the consensus outlook among meteorological agencies.
Several large-scale drivers are converging to support the above-average outlook for 2025. Howden Re outlined that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SSTs, exceeding the 1981-2010 mean, are expected to increase heat and moisture fluxes into developing systems.
The ongoing positive phase of the AMO, alongside the neutral-to-La Niña-like ENSO conditions, is projected to suppress vertical wind shear and encourage cyclogenesis during the season's peak months.
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