Munich Re reports that current climatic indicators point to a slightly above-average number of storms in the North Atlantic for the 2025 hurricane season, although this year’s forecast carries higher uncertainty compared to 2024.
The reinsurance group cited ongoing ambiguity in key climatological drivers, particularly those impacting storm development.
Based on recent climatological analyses, Munich Re projects 14 to 19 named storms in the tropical North Atlantic this year. Of these, seven to nine are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, with three or four potentially reaching major hurricane status, characterized by wind speeds exceeding 110 mph (177 km/h).
These figures are slightly above the long-term historical average from 1950 to 2024, which stands at 12.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.6 major hurricanes. The projected figures also align with patterns observed during the current warm phase in the North Atlantic since the mid-1990s, when averages were 15.8 tropical storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes. Munich Re noted that this year’s forecasts show considerable variation among leading research institutions.
Two main factors drive hurricane activity: sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic and the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific. Munich Re emphasized that both factors are currently difficult to predict with clarity.
Anja Rädler (pictured above), meteorologist and climate expert at Munich Re, said forecasting the 2025 hurricane season presents more challenges than last year, given the uncertain development of ENSO phases and water temperatures.
“According to a study conducted at Colorado State University, under similar conditions the US was hit by three devastating hurricanes in 2017 – Harvey, Irma and Maria. It was the second-costliest hurricane season in history. Yet in 2006, a year that began with similar conditions, there were far fewer storms, and losses were under the US$1bn mark,” Rädler said.
In 2024, the North Atlantic recorded 18 tropical cyclones, including 11 hurricanes, five of which intensified into major hurricanes categorized as Category 3 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.
Munich Re noted that Hurricanes Milton and Helene were responsible for the highest insured losses in the US, particularly impacting Florida. The 2024 hurricane season ranked as the second-highest year for global losses from tropical cyclones over the last decade.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its 2025 forecast recently, projecting a 60% chance of an above-normal season. NOAA expects 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes during the upcoming season.
Forecasts from Colorado State University (CSU) predict a similarly active season, with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Researchers at CSU point to elevated sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea as key factors in their outlook. Their projections suggest that 2025 could exceed the climatological averages for storm frequency and intensity if current trends continue.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of researchers based in the UK, has also released its pre-season forecast for 2025, suggesting hurricane activity will be approximately 25% above the 1991-2020 average. TSR's projection aligns with other forecasts in predicting an active season and points to favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions contributing to the higher expectations.
The 2025 hurricane season will officially run from June 1 through Nov. 30. While cyclones can form outside of these months, it is less common. Munich Re pointed out that while forecasting the number of storms is possible, predicting how many will make landfall and the locations affected remains highly uncertain.
A single major hurricane striking a densely populated area can lead to catastrophic insured losses totaling billions of dollars. Munich Re stressed the importance of preventive measures to mitigate the financial impact of such events.
Tropical cyclone activity in other parts of the world is also influenced by ENSO patterns. Munich Re stated that in the northwest Pacific, La Niña conditions generally suppress typhoon activity.
However, an initial forecast by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) suggests that typhoon activity in 2025 is likely to be close to the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020. TSR estimates 25 named cyclones, 16 typhoons, and nine severe typhoons reaching Categories 3 through 5 for the upcoming season.
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