Following an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which produced five major hurricanes, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton that impacted the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States, forecasts for the 2025 season suggest above-average activity, though less severe than the previous year, according to Acrisure Re.
The company’s annual pre-season hurricane outlook, compiled by its analytics and modeling teams, evaluates several key indicators to provide a qualitative overview of expected conditions for the upcoming season.
Acrisure Re reports that Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are cooler compared to 2024 in key storm development regions but remain above the historical average. These conditions are expected to support an above-normal season.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to be in a neutral phase, typically associated with less hurricane-suppressing wind shear. Additionally, conditions in the Sahel region are close to average, suggesting that Saharan dust is unlikely to significantly suppress storm formation.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 60% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025. NOAA’s outlook calls for 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher.
Key factors behind the forecast include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, neutral ENSO conditions, weak wind shear, and increased activity linked to the West African Monsoon.
Simon Hedley (pictured above), CEO of Acrisure Re, said that the January 2025 renewal season saw US property catastrophe reinsurance rates decline between 5% and 15% on a risk-adjusted basis. He noted that mid-year Florida renewals experienced further rate reductions.
“Mid-year Florida renewals also saw rates decline even further from last year. Looking ahead to the 2026 renewals, much will depend on weather activity. As always, Acrisure Re will be monitoring the tropics and providing real-time updates both before and after any potential events using our suite of tools and analytics,” Hedley said.
Forecasters are also monitoring the potential for early storm development before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1. Forecast models indicate that a low-pressure area could form in the Caribbean Sea near Central America in late May, raising the possibility of the first named storm emerging ahead of schedule.
Ming Li, partner and global head of catastrophe modeling at Acrisure Re, said current indicators, including above-average Atlantic SSTs and a neutral ENSO forecast, point to an average to slightly above-average North Atlantic hurricane season in 2025.
“As these conditions continue to develop, Acrisure Re is closely watching the data to help clients prepare and respond with greater precision and confidence,” Li said.
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