Berenberg’s modelling suggests Zurich’s possible offer for Beazley could lift earnings per share at 1,280p, though accretion declines materially at higher price points.
In a January 20 note, Berenberg estimated 5.6% EPS accretion at the current indicated price, assuming 40% debt and cash funding with the remainder financed through share issuance. The broker said its modelling assumes no revenue or cost synergies. It also estimated accretion would remain above 4% up to around 1,430p, before dropping to 3.9% at 1,480p.
Berenberg added that Zurich faces limited constraints in funding terms, pointing to H1 2025 IFRS 17 leverage of 26% and a December 2025E solvency ratio of 255%, compared with the insurer’s stated 160% minimum. Under an illustrative structure involving $4 billion of debt and $6 billion of equity issuance, the broker estimated leverage would rise from 26.1% to 28.3%.
Moody’s, in an issuer comment dated January 21, assessed the same potential transaction through a credit lens, saying a Beazley acquisition would be credit positive for Zurich. The ratings agency cited the opportunity to increase Zurich’s specialty insurance operations and its exposure to lines including cyber, marine and political risk. Moody’s said Zurich’s specialty gross written premiums would rise to around $15 billion from $9.4 billion in 2024 under the transaction scenario it reviewed.
At the same time, Moody’s said the deal would increase execution risk and would likely raise debt while reducing excess capital at least temporarily. The agency said the proposed £7.7 billion price equates to almost 40% of Zurich’s total half-year 2025 equity and about 28% of total available regulatory capital at year-end 2024.
Moody’s said it expects Zurich’s Swiss Solvency Test (SST) capital ratio to remain sustainably above 200% and financial leverage to remain below 27% (21.5% at 2024) on the current terms. It pointed to an SST ratio of 257% at September 30, 2025, an expected equity raise, and economic earnings equivalent to 32 percentage points of required capital on average over the three years to 2024.
