A widely cited early forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is pointing to below-average activity. But in parts of the insurance market, such projections are increasingly being met with a dose of skepticism.
The latest outlook from the Colorado State University Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team estimates 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. That would place the season below the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, according to figures reported by CBS News.
But while such forecasts are closely watched each year, some insurance professionals say their credibility, particularly this early in the season, is limited.
One wholesale property broker, speaking anonymously to Insurance Business, said early hurricane forecasts have become something of an “industry inside-joke,” reflecting a growing belief that April projections are often unreliable.
“I’ve put less and less credence in these earliest forecasts over the years,” the broker said. “It’s become somewhat of an inside industry joke to expect the opposite of what the early forecasts predict.”
Early seasonal outlooks, while useful for sparking preparedness discussions, often fail to capture the volatility of atmospheric conditions that ultimately shape storm activity. Even forecasters acknowledge the uncertainty.
Phil Klotzbach, who leads the Colorado State team, has cautioned that “curveballs” remain possible, with key variables still evolving months ahead of the June 1 start of hurricane season.
The 2026 outlook is largely driven by expectations of El Niño conditions developing later this year. The Climate Prediction Center puts the probability of El Niño forming between May and July at 61%, a pattern that typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.
Still, insurers note that such macro signals do not always translate cleanly into real-world outcomes. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, for example, are currently sending “mixed signals,” according to researchers.
Insurers and reinsurers are noting that a quieter forecast does not equate to lower risk. Monica Ningen, CEO of Property & Casualty Reinsurance US at Swiss Re, stressed that averages fail to capture the true nature of catastrophe exposure.
“It would be easy to interpret that as a signal to ease off,” Ningen said. “But in our business, averages can be misleading because they don’t capture impact.”
She pointed to Hurricane Andrew as a defining example. The storm formed during a relatively quiet season but ultimately became one of the most consequential insured loss events in history. “We’ve seen time and again that a single event can reshape both loss experience and market dynamics,” she said.
The 2025 season underscores this point, Ningen added. While no hurricanes made direct landfall in the US (the first time in a decade), other regions experienced severe impacts, including Jamaica, which was hit by a Category 5 storm.
Against this backdrop, she highlighted measures such as strengthening building resilience, improving construction standards, and investing in mitigation strategies.
"At the end of the day, preparedness is a choice,” said Ningen. “We can’t control how many storms form, but we can control how ready we are. That includes practical steps like strengthening roofs, improving building standards, and making smart investments that may cost more upfront but save significantly in the long run.
“A below-average forecast doesn’t mean the risk goes away, it just means we have to stay sharp, stay vigilant, and be ready for the one storm that can make all the difference."
