Amid a still-firm US commercial lines market, premium renewal rates remained elevated in January but showed clear signs of moderation across major lines, according to new data from Ivans.
The latest Ivans Index, the company's monthly premium renewal rate index, indicated that year-over-year, commercial auto, business owner's policy (BOP), general liability, commercial property and umbrella all posted higher average renewal rate changes, while Workers' Compensation stayed in negative territory. On a month-over-month basis, however, renewal rate changes eased in every line, except umbrella.
In January, the average premium renewal rate change for commercial auto was 5.62%, down from 6.46% in December. BOP recorded an average renewal rate change of 6.89%, compared to 7.58% at the end of December. General liability also averaged 6.89%, down from 7.52% in the previous month. Commercial property came in at 7.22%, easing from 8.34% in December. Umbrella was the outlier, with an average renewal rate change of 10.47%, up from 10.07% in December. Workers’ compensation saw an average renewal rate change of -2.17%, compared with -1.77% in the prior month.
Even after January’s moderation, renewal rate changes in property and liability remained well above pre‑hard‑market norms and only modestly below peak levels seen in 2024, signaling that pricing was still firmly in corrective territory rather than back to a soft market.
The figures suggested the US commercial market was still running at historically elevated rate levels in property and liability, but with some cooling in the pace of increases compared with late 2025. Umbrella coverage remained notably firm, with double‑digit rate change and a slight month‑over‑month uptick, underscoring the continued focus on excess liability capacity and severity trends. Workers’ compensation continued to see rate decreases, extending a long‑running soft patch in that line.
Market participants have pointed to ongoing pressure from reinsurance costs, elevated catastrophe and secondary‑peril losses, and construction and repair inflation as key factors behind still‑firm commercial property rates. In liability and umbrella, concerns around social inflation, litigation funding and large jury verdicts continued to underpin pricing, particularly in sectors such as trucking, construction and habitational real estate. By contrast, relatively favorable loss experience and intense competition have helped keep workers’ compensation pricing under downward pressure.
Behind the national averages, brokers reported continued variation by geography and class of business, with catastrophe‑exposed property, auto‑heavy fleets and higher‑hazard liability classes still seeing above‑average pressure on terms and pricing, while better‑performing, less exposed accounts experienced more muted increases.
For agents and brokers, the January readings indicated that while clients were still facing meaningful premium pressure in most lines, the steepest phase of the hard market may have been easing in areas such as commercial property, BOP and general liability. At the same time, the persistence of high umbrella rate changes meant many insureds were likely to remain sensitive to total cost of risk, retention strategies and program structure heading into 2026 renewals.
For carriers and MGAs, the data pointed to an environment in which underwriting discipline was still being rewarded, but where competitive pressures may have been gradually re‑emerging in some segments. Ongoing rate cuts in workers’ compensation continued to set that line apart from the rest of the commercial portfolio, with implications for mixed‑line profitability and capital allocation decisions.
Looking ahead, brokers and carriers were expected to watch upcoming renewal cycles closely to see whether January’s slowdown marked the start of a more sustained easing in property and casualty rates, or a temporary pause driven by competitive dynamics. Catastrophe activity in 2026, reinsurance renewals and broader macro factors such as inflation and interest rates are likely to shape how long the current pricing plateau can be maintained.
