Winter Storm Fern is expected to generate billions of dollars in insured losses, with early estimates ranging from $4 billion to as high as $6.7 billion, according to separate analyses by Verisk and Karen Clark & Company (KCC).
Verisk, a data analytics and technology provider to the global insurance industry, said Tuesday initial estimates from its Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group place insured property and auto losses at up to $4 billion.
The firm said freeze-related damage is expected to be the primary loss driver, with additional impacts from snow, ice, and wind.
Winter Storm Fern affected large portions of the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic between January 23 and 26.
The storm brought freezing rain, heavy snowfall, severe thunderstorms, and record-setting cold temperatures as Arctic air collided with warm, moist air from the Gulf.
Freezing rain caused widespread power outages across Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and parts of the Deep South, with ice accumulations of up to one inch reported from eastern Texas through northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky.
Heavy snowfall exceeded one foot in parts of New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Ohio, while severe thunderstorms in southern Alabama and Georgia produced wind gusts exceeding 60 mph and several tornadoes.
Based on early modeling from Verisk’s updated US Winter Storm Model, as many as 14 states - from Texas to Massachusetts - could each see insured losses exceeding $50 million.
If those estimates hold, Verisk said Fern could become the third-costliest winter storm in US history, behind Winter Storm Elliott in 2022 and Winter Storm Uri in 2021.
Karen Clark & Company’s estimate is significantly higher. Using its high-resolution KCC US Winter Storm Model, the firm estimates privately insured losses at $6.7 billion, covering residential, commercial, and industrial properties.
KCC said Fern caused damage across more than 30 states, with the highest insured losses expected in Texas and Tennessee.
KCC identified freeze damage as the most significant sub-peril, followed by snow and ice. Power outages caused by ice-laden trees and downed power lines left many properties without heat, increasing the risk of burst pipes and interior damage.
The firm noted that commercial properties are particularly vulnerable, as heating systems are often reduced or shut off during non-operational hours, leading to larger average claims than residential losses.
Both firms highlighted the storm’s unusually broad footprint and complex mix of hazards as key challenges for loss estimation.
Fern set daily minimum temperature records across multiple states, with readings as low as -20°F in parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota and record lows in Texas cities including Austin, San Antonio, and Houston, underscoring the severity of the event and its loss potential.
