A below-average hurricane outlook for 2026 does not reduce the risk facing US insurers, with a single landfalling storm still capable of driving significant losses despite Colorado State University’s projection of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
While the seasonal outlook points to fewer storms than average, recent catastrophe data indicates that insured losses remain elevated. US natural catastrophe losses reached $112.8 billion in 2024, following $116.9 billion in 2022 and $108.7 billion in 2021. Over the past decade, annual insured losses have consistently exceeded $80 billion in multiple years.
Industry data also shows that hurricanes and tropical storms account for 38.2% of total catastrophe losses in the US, second only to tornado-related events at 39.9%. This concentration of losses in wind-related perils continues to define underwriting exposure along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science expects 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes during the June 1 to November 30 season. Long-term averages stand at 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The forecast, led by Phil Klotzbach, factors in a moderate to strong El Niño during the peak of the season. Typically, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently near average, indicating they are not expected to provide the same level of storm development support seen in recent years.
CSU estimates a 32% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the entire US coastline in 2026, compared with a historical average of 43% from 1880–2020. The probability is 15% for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, versus a 21% historical average, and 20% for the Gulf Coast, compared with 27%. The Caribbean probability is placed at 35%, below the 47% historical average.
Historical data shows that landfall frequency does not directly correlate with loss severity. Between 2000 and 2024, several years with limited US hurricane landfalls still recorded fatalities and economic losses, while years such as 2005 and 2017 produced large-scale impacts, including more than 3,000 deaths in 2017.
Loss data from past hurricanes illustrates the financial impact of single events. Hurricane Katrina remains the costliest US hurricane on record, with $65 billion in insured losses at the time, or $107.5 billion in 2025 dollars. More recent events, including Hurricane Ian in 2022, generated $54 billion in insured losses.
This concentration of losses in individual storms aligns with industry definitions of catastrophe events, which are triggered when insured losses reach at least $25 million and affect a large number of policyholders.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was classified by CSU as above normal based on the number of major hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The season recorded 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The only US landfall was Tropical Storm Chantal, which struck South Carolina on July 6.
Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, resulting in nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
Standard homeowners’ and commercial property policies cover wind-related damage but exclude flood losses. Flood insurance is available through the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program and private insurers.
Data cited in Insurance Information Institute materials shows that 22% of homeowners report being at risk of flooding, and 78% of that group have purchased flood insurance, with 43% through the NFIP and 35% through private insurers. This indicates that a portion of at-risk properties remain without coverage.
Private flood insurance has grown in recent years, with direct premiums written reaching $803,069,000 in 2023 before declining to $729,954,000 in 2024, based on NAIC data sourced through S&P Global Market Intelligence and cited by the Insurance Information Institute.
Sean Kevelighan, CEO of the Insurance Information Institute, said preparation should remain a focus despite the forecast.
“While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental US, all it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season’s start is less than two months away,” Kevelighan said.
He said homeowners and businesses should review insurance policies to confirm coverage for wind and water damage and assess the need for flood insurance. The Insurance Information Institute also cited mitigation measures such as roof tie-downs, wind-rated garage doors, storm shutters and drainage systems.
Private passenger vehicles damaged by wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of auto insurance policies. About 75% of US drivers carry comprehensive coverage, according to the organization.
Operational guidance also includes maintaining a photo or video inventory of property, preparing a hurricane emergency kit with at least a two-week supply of essential items, and establishing evacuation plans ahead of storm warnings.
Even with projected activity below historical averages, the 2026 outlook leaves underlying exposure largely unchanged for insurers operating in hurricane-prone regions. Elevated catastrophe losses in recent years, combined with concentration risk from individual storms and ongoing gaps in flood coverage, continue to frame underwriting and risk management decisions heading into the season.
