A single hail event capable of generating $30 billion in insured losses will likely strike the US within the coming decades, according to Cotality, previously CoreLogic.
"Hail doesn't command the same headlines as hurricanes, floods, or wildfires, but the data shows it has become one of the most financially destructive natural hazards facing the property market," said Jon Schneyer, Cotality's director of research and content.
Damaging hail fell on 142 days in 2025, well above the 20-year average of 122 days and seven more than in 2024. Hailstones two inches or larger in diameter struck at least 600,000 houses, according to the firm's Severe Convective Storm Risk Report 2026.
The trend tracks with broader industry data. Aon's 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight report found that severe convective storms generated $61 billion in global insured losses in 2025, with the majority occurring in the US.
The figures have cemented a reclassification of SCS from a secondary peril to a primary loss driver, with the category now surpassing tropical cyclones as the costliest insured peril of the 21st century.
More than 43.5 million properties face moderate or greater hail damage risk nationwide. Texas leads with 7.9 million at-risk properties and a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $3.1 trillion, with more than 235,000 residences hit by damaging hail last year.
Cotality said risk is "specifically concentrated in the Texas Triangle – Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio – which together account for more than $2.2 trillion in exposed reconstruction cost value with moderate or greater hail damage risk." All four metro areas ranked among the 10 most at-risk for hail losses.
Illinois ranked second, with 3.1 million residences at risk and an RCV of $1.5 trillion. Chicago topped the list of most at-risk metro areas. Cotality described the state as "a hidden giant," noting it "holds a larger volume of expensive properties with moderate-to-high risk" despite lacking the extreme hail frequency seen in states like Colorado or Kansas.
Missouri, Minnesota and Georgia rounded out the top five, while Colorado placed seventh, behind Pennsylvania. Wyoming saw more than 41,000 homes impacted, followed by Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Kansas.
Schneyer characterized hail as a "death-by-a-thousand-paper cuts" peril now among the largest drivers of insured losses in the property market.
Gallagher Re separately noted that population and exposure growth in high-risk areas has "helped exponentially grow the potential loss" from severe convective storms, with emerging evidence of behavioral shifts in storm activity.
From a reinsurance standpoint, Cotality said capturing the "true volatility of these massive $30 billion tail events is critical" to ensure treaty negotiations, retention limits and capital reserves remain calibrated across the risk-transfer ecosystem. The firm expects such an event to occur once over several decades.
The report also found more than 76 million houses face moderate or greater risk from EF0 tornadoes, while 64 million are at risk from straight-line winds of 65 mph or higher.
