The US casualty market is transitioning out of nearly five years of post-pandemic disruption into a more stable period, according to the 2026 RPS Casualty Market Report.
The report indicates that pricing, retentions and underwriting standards have settled at structurally higher levels compared to pre-pandemic norms.
Rate increases on primary lines are slowing, with many accounts now seeing flat renewals to increases of 5%. Umbrella and excess layers remain more volatile, with increases often reaching the upper single digits to double digits depending on class, loss history and jurisdiction.
The pricing discipline comes after years of sustained losses in the segment. According to Guy Carpenter, the US casualty segment has posted underwriting losses for 14 consecutive years.
Insurers have responded with a cumulative exposure-adjusted price increase of more than 155% since 2015, with excess liability rates rising by 15% or more on average through mid-2025.
Capacity has returned to the market but remains fragmented and subject to tighter management. The first $10 million of limit has become particularly constrained, with multiple carriers now often required to assemble what previously would have been a single lead layer.
Carriers and reinsurers are focusing on disciplined growth, according to the report. Insurers are more inclined to decline underpriced accounts while favoring cedents that demonstrate underwriting discipline and claims expertise. Limits remain compressed with higher attachment points.
Dante Pezzi (pictured above), an RPS area president, said new entrants are being selective about where they deploy capital. "New capacity is coming in, but it's not a free-for-all," Pezzi said.
The report identifies several underlying risk factors that continue to affect the market. Nuclear verdicts remain prevalent in auto, trucking and premises liability, driven by social inflation, third-party litigation funding and plaintiff-friendly jurisdictions.
Coverage structures have grown more complex, with increased use of quota shares, facilities, vertical splits and integrated casualty-environmental solutions. Exclusions for habitability, abuse and molestation, active shooter events and PFAS are appearing in more classes.
Construction, habitational, hospitality, and public and nonprofit sectors face the most pressure, with capacity sensitive to jurisdiction and loss controls. Carriers now require documentation of safety protocols, telematics deployment, training, incident reporting and post-incident procedures as a condition for terms.
RPS said the market heading into 2026 is not softening but is becoming more disciplined, data-centric and collaborative, with risk control and documentation serving as the main factors influencing results.
