President Donald Trump said on Friday he is weighing a limited military strike on Iran, keeping markets – and insurers – on edge as the US continues its biggest Middle East buildup in more than two decades.
Asked at a White House breakfast with US governors whether he was considering limited strikes to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program, Trump replied: “I guess I can say I am considering that.” He has previously indicated he will decide within the next two weeks whether to order attacks, while insisting a negotiated agreement with Iran is still possible.
Trump has warned any assault on Iran would be “far worse” than the limited US strikes launched last June against nuclear targets, raising fears that even a “surgical” operation could escalate into a broader confrontation.
Behind the rhetoric, the Pentagon has rapidly expanded its footprint in the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is already on station, with a second carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, en route. Dozens of additional US aircraft – including advanced F‑16, F‑22 and F‑35 fighters – have been deployed, giving Washington the capability for a sustained air campaign rather than a one‑off strike. Long‑range bombers could be launched from US soil or from bases such as Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Markets and security analysts say the greatest risk to the global economy is any disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. More than 14 million barrels per day of oil and condensate – about a third of global seaborne exports – passed through the strait on average in 2025.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to target shipping or obstruct traffic through the strait if attacked. Satellite imagery reviewed by nuclear and defence experts shows Tehran racing to harden key nuclear and missile facilities with reinforced concrete shields, tunnel networks and rebuilt bases – steps that could make any future air campaign more complex and prolonged.
For global insurers and reinsurers, Trump’s latest comments reinforce concerns that the current standoff could move quickly from brinkmanship to active conflict. As previously reported by Insurance Business, specialty markets are already treating the US deployment as the largest build‑up of American air power in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion, and are re‑examining a broad range of covers.
War and political violence underwriters are modelling scenarios that include direct strikes on energy and infrastructure assets, missile retaliation against Gulf states, and civil unrest in key markets. Marine insurers are stress‑testing war‑risk exposure for tankers and cargo vessels transiting Hormuz and nearby waterways, where a single incident could trigger detentions, blockages or sharp jumps in premiums and deductibles.
Aviation carriers face potential rerouting, airspace closures and miscalculation risks if tensions spill over, putting pressure on hull and liability programs for airlines operating in or over the region. Trade credit and political risk markets are watching closely for any new sanctions or asset freezes that could hit corporates exposed to Iran and its neighbours.
Reinsurers, meanwhile, are focused on accumulation: the prospect that a prolonged air campaign or regional escalation could generate correlated losses across war, energy, marine, aviation and political risk treaties, rather than a short, contained spike in claims.
For now, diplomacy remains officially “the preferred path,” with US and Iranian officials having held indirect talks in recent days. But with Trump openly mulling limited strikes and US forces positioned for more than a symbolic show of force, underwriters are being pushed to revisit worst‑case scenarios – and to prepare for the possibility that a long‑simmering geopolitical risk could crystallize with little warning.
