Despite the Middle East conflict, more than seven out of 10 companies worldwide continue to expect positive export growth in 2026.
The latest Allianz Trade Global Survey, which polled 6,000 companies across 13 markets in February and March, shows that the Middle East conflict has not derailed export optimism but has reshuffled the global risk map after a year of trade wars.
Allianz Trade CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui (pictured above) said the survey reveals that 75% of exporters still anticipate positive export growth this year.
She noted that the impact of the Middle East conflict seems moderate, especially when compared with the 2025 tariff shock that caused expectations to drop by 40 percentage points. German exporters remain particularly confident, with 83% forecasting gains.
Geopolitical and political risk has become the leading global threat for 65% of companies. Vietnamese, American and Spanish firms each saw confidence fall by more than 10 percentage points because of the Middle East conflict, while Chinese companies lost 9 points.
Less than a quarter of respondents expressed strong concern over direct energy or shipping disruptions. Many appear confident that their coping mechanisms will work or that the tensions will prove short-lived.
Yet payment conditions have clearly tightened since the conflict began. The share of companies paid within 30 days dropped from 10% to 7%, while those waiting beyond 70 days rose from 15% to 24%. Some 43% now expect payment terms to deteriorate further.
Read more: The Iran War's hidden insurance crisis
Non-payment risk has also increased, with 40% of firms anticipating higher exposure. Pharmaceuticals, construction, and computers/telecom stand out as the most vulnerable sectors. Larger companies face disproportionately longer payment cycles.
Research from Allianz Trade released earlier this year shows that 48% of international trade receivables – roughly $1.1 trillion in global trade exposure – sit in countries with very high or severe collection complexity. This highlights ongoing difficulties in recovering payments amid broader volatility.
In response, companies have moved quickly to adjust. Eighty percent have changed their trade and supply chain routes since the 2025 trade war. Asia Pacific markets outside China have gained from competitive labor costs, improving logistics and regional integration under RCEP, attracting fresh investment flows to Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Inventory building and diversification to new markets were each adopted by 64% of firms. Sourcing from new suppliers stood at 63%, followed by rerouting through third countries at 57%.
Since the Middle East conflict erupted, half of companies have sought alternative shipping routes or carriers, with many also working with customs brokers to speed up clearance.
Europe and Asia have emerged as the leading regions for future export growth, while interest in the US as a destination has cooled. Firms are also planning to expand under newly signed free trade agreements such as India-EU and MERCOSUR-EU, although non-tariff barriers continue to limit their full potential.
The Middle East conflict has added pressure on trade credit insurers through shipping disruptions and higher oil prices, contributing to elevated claims costs in energy and marine sectors. Exporters are showing notable resilience even as risks continue to build.
