Commercial auto is deep in a hard market. According to AMS data, 14 of the top 20 carriers posted combined ratios above 100% in 2024.
The last profitable year for many was 2021, the middle of a pandemic, when fewer vehicles were on the road. Since then, loss pressure hasn’t let up, as nuclear verdicts, social inflation, escalating claim severity, and third-party litigation funding continue to push premiums higher, even as many insureds’ margins shrink.
As a result, transportation firms are steering their risk management strategies to keep their fleets insurable.
“A hard market is approaching, or here, in commercial auto,” said Mark Gallagher, national transportation director at RPS, during the firm’s 2025 transportation market outlook webinar. “Carriers continue to push rate; some have exited the space. Premiums continue to rise, and losses do as well.”
The insurance squeeze is landing atop a soft freight economy. Spot and contract rates remain depressed, orders for new extra-heavy tractors are down roughly 15% year over year (and fell further in Q2 2025), and bankruptcies have swept across fleets of all sizes, according to Eden Hancock, SVP at RPS. Higher interest rates have also compounded the strain for the industry.
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Fleets are pivoting in several key ways, according to RPS specialists:
Trucking firms are shifting away from general freight toward niches that offer steadier yields or better risk profiles. Specialty revenue can help offset thin margins.
With distressed assets coming to market, opportunistic operators are buying equipment and lanes from failed competitors. Others are layering value-added services (e.g., final-mile, dedicated contracts) that encourage customer loyalty and reduce exposure to rate volatility.
Carriers are increasingly rewarding clients who report losses promptly. Telematics-triggered first notice of loss (FNOL) can shorten claim cycles, reduce legal involvement, and lower claim severity.
“Shortening those timelines pays off,” noted Alex Robertson, a transportation broker with RPS. “Some markets are now offering better renewal pricing simply because the data proves safer routes and quicker reporting.”
Insurers have moved from “Do you have telematics?” to “What are you doing with the data?” Implementing safety measures based on telematics data, such as coaching for harsh braking, speeding, and distraction; documenting corrective action; and conducting regular safety reviews are becoming table stakes.
Survival in 2025's commercial auto hard market demands operational agility and resourcefulness. Trucking firms that diversify intelligently, invest in verifiable safety and close emerging coverage gaps will remain insurable at workable terms.
Brokers who map that journey with data, discipline and creative market access will be the difference between merely renewing and truly de-risking.
Hard-market placements reward completeness: a trucking supplemental with 3-4 years of units, miles, and revenue; current vehicle and driver lists with dates of hire; and four years of currently valued loss runs. That data helps underwriters distinguish between cyclical pain and structural risk, said RPS.
Quietly settling fender-benders backfires. Late-reported claims drive litigation and undermine renewal negotiations. Brokers should encourage clients to report incidents immediately, ideally supported by telematics alerts.
With admitted markets tight, the non-admitted (E&S) space can unlock tailored terms, broadened territories and pragmatic wordings, particularly for evolving operations, new ventures or specialized hauling.
Help clients leverage telematics data effectively: route maps that avoid nuclear-verdict venues, documented coaching logs, and quarterly dashboards that tie behavior to loss results.
Between inflation and nuclear verdict exposure, many fleets are underinsured. Consider deductible corridors and layered excess structures to keep premiums in reach without sacrificing balance-sheet protection.
Cargo theft is also surging, and criminals are increasingly targeting commodities that are easy to offload, including food, beverages, household goods, and metals. Theft is more sophisticated now, often involving social engineering, i.e. fraudulent instructions convincing truckers to divert loads.
“Traditional cargo forms typically don’t cover these scenarios,” said Mike Mitchell, regional VP, Southeast, at RPS. “That’s why brokers and agents must educate clients about cyber coverage and endorsements for social engineering specific losses.”
Truckers must also improve cyber diligence, Mitchell added, including multi-factor authentication, verifying instructions, and being cautious with communications.
