Mixed rate movement is expected across the US auto insurance market in early 2026, with premiums projected to rise in 19 states and decline in 13 during the first two quarters of the year, according to analysis from TheZebra.com.
The outlook is detailed in The Zebra’s 2026 State of Insurance | Auto Report. The report follows a period of slower growth in national pricing, after average auto insurance premiums rose 3% nationally from 2024 to 2025, compared with an 18% jump the prior year.
For 2026, The Zebra projects the typical US driver will pay $2,256 on average in annual auto insurance premiums. The company linked the pricing outlook to economic factors, population trends in dense areas and severe weather exposure.
The question of affordability is colliding with higher shopping activity in the auto market, with 57% of customers actively seeking new coverage within the past year, according to a 2025 J.D. Power study.
“Americans are facing rising auto insurance costs due to various factors, including economic pressures, population growth in dense areas and severe weather,” said David Seider (pictured above), chief commercial officer at The Zebra. He added that rate cuts and competitive shopping may help some customers, but “most renewals will remain high.”
Seider also warned about household budgeting pressures tied to coverage. “If the economy weakens, insurance could take a growing bite out of take-home pay, prompting more frequent shopping for better deals – or even causing some to forego coverage altogether,” he said.
Alongside the report, The Zebra introduced the Zebra Premium Pressure Index, a proprietary metric that compares insurance premium data against broader economic indicators to gauge affordability. The index estimates Americans are spending 2.6% of their annual income on auto insurance.
Model and location differences remained central to the report’s findings. Among non-luxury brands, the Nissan GT-R was cited as the most expensive to insure at nearly $400 per month, while the Ford Bronco was listed as the least expensive at $76 per month.
By state, the index found residents of Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida are spending nearly 5% of their annual income on auto insurance. The report also projected that Vermont, Minnesota and Mississippi will see 6% to 13% decreases, while Oregon, Maryland and Utah are forecast to post 8% to 21% increases.
The Zebra said six states recorded increases of more than 50% from 2024 to 2025: Louisiana, Nevada, New York, Georgia, Maryland and Utah. It also reported that texting while driving leads to an average 17% premium increase.
“Auto insurance isn’t one‑size‑fits‑all, and rates can vary dramatically depending on who you choose to insure with,” Seider said.
