Driverless trucks are no longer theoretical. They’re already operating long-haul routes – and for insurers, that marks a seismic shift in how commercial transportation risk is calculated and covered.
“The vehicle can drive itself. It may not be able to repair itself,” said Patrick Thomas (pictured), West growth director - transportation, at Acrisure.
Thomas said equipment quality and maintenance represent the first major concern. While autonomous systems can self-diagnose issues, they can’t perform repairs. If the hardware isn’t maintained to the highest standards, the entire supply chain could be exposed. “If the equipment is not up to an incredible standard, it potentially brings compromise to the whole chain of autonomous vehicles,” he said.
With autonomy comes reliance on connectivity. Cybersecurity isn’t just a peripheral issue – it’s core to the system’s operation. “If this thing is being controlled virtually or semi-virtually, you are going to have to have controls and measures in place to protect the infrastructure and the data,” said Thomas.
That control is spread across multiple entities: OEMs, business owners, software developers, cellular and satellite providers. Each plays a role in transmitting and securing vast amounts of data. “There’s a little bit of unknown as we see who’s responsible for what,” said Thomas. “But it’s exciting nonetheless. It gives us a chance to evolve.”
As for liability distribution, that remains murky. “There could be some joint responsibility,” Thomas said, depending on how much autonomy the system is given and how it was programmed to behave. A business may still be responsible if it directs the system incorrectly – or fails to intervene when necessary.
Even in a highly automated future, Thomas doesn’t see human roles disappearing entirely. “What we’ll see short-term is, there will be like a conductor sort of position,” he said. Just as trains have conductors and planes have pilots, trucks may continue to need human oversight – someone ready to respond when the system fails or encounters scenarios it wasn’t trained to handle.
In the meantime, regulatory clarity remains elusive. “We just need some statutes to come out to see where things land,” he said.
Traditional underwriting has relied heavily on driver records and fleet histories. That’s no longer useful. “With autonomous vehicles, you’re not looking at standardized criteria like a motor vehicle record, because it’s no longer relevant,” said Thomas.
Instead, underwriters will need to assess hardware quality, software integrity, and route data. “You’re going to have to get really advanced in what you're looking at from a data standpoint,” he said. That includes evaluating the computing systems guiding the trucks and the infrastructure dispatching them.
Over time, patterns will emerge – accident frequency by route and time of day, for instance – which could eventually allow insurers to tailor pricing accordingly. “The data will ultimately be key,” said Thomas.
But he acknowledged the current gap in underwriting capabilities. “I don’t know how to underwrite the integrity of engineered software today,” he said. “And I think we’ll be forced to learn that.”
Autonomous rigs don’t come cheap. “Autonomous vehicles today are hundreds of thousands of dollars,” Thomas said. Layer in higher maintenance, insurance, and fuel costs, and the economic model becomes fragile.
“Just because we can do it doesn’t mean it makes sense yet to do it on scale,” he said. Freight volumes are down, revenue per mile is declining, and insurers may demand higher limits to cover novel risks.
“We don’t have an endless supply of investment to buy extraordinary limits to protect the public,” he said. And yet, Thomas expects that higher coverage expectations will be the norm – at least until the tech proves itself. “We may be held to a greater standard than maybe we would like to be.”
Today, insurers are willing to test the waters, but most have not rolled out comprehensive solutions for autonomous fleets. “The insurance community is cautiously optimistic,” said Thomas. “They’re embracing this, but on a one-off basis.”
Fleet operators should also expect more financial participation upfront. “The co-share and financial risk will be greater than a traditional trucking model,” he said.
For transportation leaders preparing for autonomy, Thomas urged cross-disciplinary collaboration between engineers, attorneys, insurers, OEMs, and business owners. “We need to be closely engaged with one another,” he said. “Because we’ll all have slightly different perspectives and goals we’re trying to achieve.”
Automation is here. But for the insurance industry, the real work – and real risk – is just beginning.
