UK property insurance claims are expected to reach £6.1 billion in 2025 – the highest annual payout on record – according to analysis from Deloitte. The projected total is up to 50% higher than payouts recorded between 2021 and 2023, with weather-related claims alone estimated at £1.6 billion.
That weather figure is more than double the annual levels seen between 2017 and 2021 and now accounts for roughly a quarter of total property payouts.
The data arrives at a delicate moment for the market. While claims are rising, premiums are expected to fall in 2026, creating a backdrop where pricing adequacy and underwriting discipline are likely to draw closer scrutiny.
Douglas Brown (pictured left), managing director of Renovation Underwriting, said: “We have seen an increase in weather related losses but there isn’t a pattern and the losses have not generally of a catastrophe nature. Falling trees have accounted for the biggest losses.”
He added that rebuild values remain an ongoing underwriting pressure, particularly on renovation and heritage risks.
“Rebuild values is a consistent problem but makes it more important than ever that brokers make sure their clients rebuild values are correct,” Brown said. “We do make sure that we sense check rebuild values as a matter of course during underwriting.”
Whether the current trend represents a structural shift remains uncertain. “I think it’s too early to say, but it’s also affected by the soft market when insurers tend to slacken their attitude for market share; we are in a risk business after all!”
At a broader level, the International Underwriting Association said climate volatility has been under sustained discussion within its property claims group over the past two years.
Joe Shaw (pictured right), director of claims at the IUA, said increased frequency of weather events is being observed not only in the UK but across Europe.
“Climate volatility has been a growing topic of focus for the IUA’s Property Claims Group over the past two years, with the increased frequency of weather events being a trend observed not just in the UK, but across Europe. This has included both different types of natural catastrophes and additional, smaller to moderate events impacting insureds.”
He added that the UK data should be considered alongside global loss trends.
“It is worth noting that the UK figures for 2025 should be read in context with lower global losses, particularly when considering US hurricane activity. Climate volatility is just one factor impacting insurers in a challenging market, so it can be difficult to assess direct influences on underwriting appetites.”
With weather-related claims now accounting for roughly a quarter of total payouts and premiums forecast to soften, the property market finds itself balancing rising volatility against competitive pressure, a familiar dynamic, but one that may demand sustained underwriting discipline.
