Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill despite a temporary ceasefire with President Trump expressing frustration over Iran’s position – saying it was doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil tankers to pass through. For marine underwriters the conditions required for stable, insurable passage certainly remain absent. The result is a market still pricing for disruption, not recovery.
“The Strait may be officially open, but we are far from seeing normality restored,” said Calvin Gray, global head of marine at Intact Insurance.
“For insurers and shipowners, this remains a controlled and high-risk environment. Shipowners are rightly cautious, and insurers will take the same approach. Cover will return where voyages are considered safe, but that threshold has not yet fully been met.”
The operational reality of the waterway continues to sit at odds with the political signal of de-escalation. Transit remains constrained, with vessels in some cases required to operate under Iranian oversight or seek permission to pass. For insurers, that introduces a level of control and uncertainty that complicates both underwriting and claims assumptions.
“The fact that vessels may need to operate under Iranian oversight or seek permission to transit, underlines that this is not a fully open trade corridor,” Gray said. “That level of control introduces additional operational and insurance complexity.”
This disconnect is keeping underwriting discipline intact. A ceasefire may reduce the immediate risk of escalation, but it does not remove the underlying exposure tied to geography, control and the potential for rapid deterioration. Pricing and capacity decisions are therefore being driven by observed transit conditions rather than political developments.
“War risk pricing will remain highly dynamic over the coming weeks,” Gray said. “A temporary ceasefire may ease pressure, but until there is consistent, safe transit through the Strait, rates will continue to reflect a heightened risk environment.”
In practical terms, that leaves the marine war market behaving as designed. Short-notice cancellation provisions and rapid repricing mechanisms are allowing insurers to adjust exposure in real time, keeping rates elevated and coverage selective even as vessels begin to move.
“The marine war market is designed to respond to exactly this kind of situation,” Gray said. “Capacity remains available, but it will be deployed selectively, based on real-time assessments of risk rather than political announcements.”
For now, the reopening is being treated less as a resolution than a test.
“This two-week window is best seen as a testing phase,” Gray said. “If vessels can move safely and consistently, confidence will return quickly. If not, we remain in a position where trade is constrained, and risk pricing stays elevated.”
The Strait of Hormuz may be partially operational, but until safe and consistent transit is demonstrated, underwriting conditions are unlikely to shift and war risk pricing will continue to reflect a corridor still defined by risk.
