Mortality in England and Wales has dropped to unprecedented lows over the 2025 to 2026 winter, with new data from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) confirming the quietest first quarter on record for deaths.
The latest update, covering death registration to March 27, 2026, showed that overall mortality rates in first quarter of 2026 were lower than in any previous Q1 on record.
“Record low winter deaths mean that mortality rates in early 2026 are also correspondingly low," said Steve Bale, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee. "Lower flu and pneumonia deaths have contributed to overall mortality rates lower than we have ever seen at this time of year.”
The CMI’s latest figures pointed to a marked reduction in key winter causes of death.
There were around 23,600 deaths involving influenza or pneumonia registered in first quarter 2026. This is below the range of 26,800 to 31,500 recorded in the first quarters of 2023 to 2025.
Deaths recorded as involving COVID‑19 in first quarter have also fallen sharply year on year. There were around 600 such deaths in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 7,700, 3,500 and 1,300 in the first quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively.
These figures are consistent with a broader pattern of falling all‑cause mortality following the acute phases of the COVID‑19 pandemic. In its announcement of the CMI_2025 Mortality Projections Model, the CMI noted that standardised mortality rates in England and Wales have fallen each year since 2020, with all‑age mortality in 2025 the lowest on record and 2% below 2024. It also reported that mortality to date in 2026 has reached a new low for the time of year.
Earlier releases from the CMI indicated that mortality in the third quarter of 2025 was lower than in any other quarter on record, and that mortality in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.4% of a full year’s mortality lower than in the same period of 2024.
At the same time, the new CMI_2025 model reflects the recent run of low mortality in its projections. According to the CMI, cohort life expectancies at age 65 under CMI_2025 are around eight weeks higher for males and six weeks higher for females than under the previous CMI_2024 calibration. That uplift is driven largely by low mortality in 2025.
The CMI has also published new guidance on how CMI_2024 and CMI_2025 should be used for pricing and financial management of mortality term assurance portfolios. The paper addressed topics such as how to treat post‑2019 experience and differences in mortality by socio‑economic group, signalling that insurers are expected to engage closely with the emerging data rather than treat it as a temporary aberration.
Lower observed mortality and higher projected life expectancy increase the present value of guaranteed income streams. Annuity providers may need to revisit longevity assumptions in their valuation bases and internal models, particularly if they had been assuming only a gradual return to pre‑pandemic improvement trends.
The timing coincides with a still‑busy UK pension risk transfer market. Bulk annuity volumes are estimated to have been close to record levels in 2024, and forecasts for 2025 and 2026 suggest continued strong demand from DB schemes looking to de‑risk through buy‑ins, buy‑outs and longevity swaps. In this context, the combination of record‑low winter mortality and a model‑driven uplift in life expectancy reinforces the case for schemes to assess whether current pricing remains attractive, and for sponsors to consider locking into transactions while insurer appetite and capital conditions are supportive.
For schemes that opt to continue running on rather than moving immediately to buy‑out, the data strengthen the argument for additional longevity hedging, including longevity swaps and other risk transfer structures, to manage the risk that members live longer than previously allowed for.
Meanwhile, a period of benign mortality can create pressure to sharpen rates, particularly in competitive segments such as bulk annuities and large group risk schemes. However, supervisory and rating agency commentary has repeatedly warned against allowing short‑term experience to drive overly aggressive pricing.
Recent analyses of the UK bulk annuity market have highlighted strong competition, tighter credit spreads and pressure on new business margins, even as demand remains high. Regulators have, in parallel, focused on the robustness of firms’ risk management frameworks, including investment risk, matching adjustment eligibility, and the use of funded reinsurance and other capital‑intensive structures.
Against that backdrop, insurers are unlikely to assume that the very low mortality observed in 2025 and early 2026 represents a permanent new baseline. The CMI itself has stressed that, while recent mortality has set new record lows, the outlook for future mortality remains uncertain. It has encouraged users of its model to adjust parameters to reflect their own portfolios and their views on future health, economic and environmental trends.
Firms will also need to reconcile lower near‑term mortality risk charges for protection business with higher long‑term longevity capital for annuities and pension guarantees. Own risk and solvency assessment (ORSA) processes are likely to focus more heavily on scenario analysis, including potential reversals in mortality trends due to future respiratory disease seasons, climate‑related health impacts or pressures on healthcare systems.
A sustained period of lower mortality at older ages could be supported by factors such as vaccination coverage, behavioural changes and medical advances. Equally, it could prove temporary if offset by future waves of respiratory illness, extreme weather‑related deaths, or ongoing strains on health and social care provision.
For now, the first‑quarter 2026 mortality monitor points to the lowest winter deaths on record. The immediate impact is favourable for protection portfolios but incrementally adverse for annuity and DB pension liabilities.
As the CMI releases further 2026 updates and refines its projection methodology following CMI_2025, UK life insurers and pension schemes will need to continue recalibrating pricing and capital so that today’s “record low” experience is reflected appropriately in tomorrow’s risk and reserving decisions, without assuming that recent conditions will persist indefinitely.
