Willis partners with University of East Anglia to analyse wildfire behaviour

Wildfires have become a more prominent driver of insurance losses in recent years

Willis partners with University of East Anglia to analyse wildfire behaviour

Catastrophe & Flood

By Josh Recamara

Willis, a WTW business, has announced a partnership with the University of East Anglia (UEA) to enhance understanding of global wildfire risk, as insurers and reinsurers face increasing exposure to climate-driven events.

The collaboration brings together WTW’s catastrophe risk modelling and insurance sector expertise with UEA’s climate and fire science, led by Matthew Jones. The aim is to analyse how wildfire behaviour is evolving, including changes in frequency, severity and geographic spread, and how this may impact insured assets and portfolios.

In recent years, wildfires have become a more prominent driver of insurance losses. Events such as the 2019–2020 Black Summer bushfires in Australia, which generated insured losses of approximately US$1.5 billion, and the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles, with estimated damages of US$40 billion, have shifted wildfire from a secondary to a core peril in certain regions. The increasing overlap of fire-prone zones with urban development and higher-value properties has heightened the risk for insurers.

The research will inform underwriting strategies, support improvements in risk selection, and assist in the development of more accurate pricing models. It also aims to provide a scientific basis for future product design and portfolio diversification decisions in wildfire-exposed regions.

Jones co-leads the State of Wildfires Report, an annual publication that assesses extreme wildfire events globally, evaluates future risk under climate change scenarios and outlines mitigation options, including land-use planning and forest management.

Daniel Bannister, weather & climate risks research lead at the Willis Research Network, said the insurance sector is increasingly affected by fast-moving wildfires that are capable of impacting densely populated areas and disrupting emergency response. He noted that accessible scientific insight is essential to support insurers in adapting to a shifting risk environment.

Jones said the partnership with WTW provides a channel to translate academic research into practical tools that can help insurers, reinsurers and other stakeholders prepare for and respond to wildfire-related risks.

As climate conditions continue to change, the company said the collaboration is expected to support efforts across the insurance value chain to better quantify, price, and manage wildfire exposures.

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