A new research initiative backed by the AXA Foundation for Human Progress is set to examine how societies think about risk, trust and solidarity at a time when geopolitical instability, environmental crises and public distrust in institutions are converging into what many insurers now describe as a “polycrisis”.
The “Re‑Contract” programme, hosted at the École normale supérieure (ENS‑PSL) in Paris, aims to re‑examine the social contract and explore how to rebuild prevention and collective resilience as contemporary shocks erode societies’ capacity to plan for the future.
By linking reflection on the social contract with analysis of modern risks, the project aligns with the AXA Foundation’s remit to support academic and field actors working for a more cohesive, inclusive and resilient society, today and for future generations.
According to the foundation, Re‑Contract adopts a transdisciplinary approach rooted in philosophy, social sciences, economics and law, and opens a new collaboration with mathematics. It departs from classical social‑contract analyses by placing systemic risks, the phenomenon of polycrisis and the role of insurance at the centre of its work - three dimensions that have often been peripheral in traditional political theory.
The programme will examine how geopolitical instability, environmental degradation, rising inequality, distrust of institutions, manipulation of information and the multiplication of global risks are weakening social cohesion and the trust that underpins relationships between citizens and institutions.
For the insurance sector, this mirrors what risk rankings are already showing. In Allianz’s 2026 Risk Barometer, cyber incidents remain the top global business risk, followed by artificial intelligence and business interruption, with climate change, political violence and regulatory change also high on the list. The report highlights not just the severity of these perils but “how interconnected they have become, as technology, geopolitics, and regulation increasingly reinforce each other”.
Re‑Contract will place particular emphasis on the principle of prevention: how knowledge about risks can be communicated to non‑specialists, and which levels of action – local, national and global – are most effective in rebuilding trust, solidarity and collective resilience.
A further strand of work will analyse the respective roles of public and private actors in guaranteeing safety in a landscape where risks are increasingly complex and interdependent. That raises questions about how risk pooling, pricing and capital allocation intersect with wider expectations of fairness and protection when multiple shocks occur simultaneously.
Ultimately, the project aims to foster the emergence of a shared culture of risk as a foundation for renewed prevention strategies and collective action. The project team argues that such a culture is still largely missing, particularly for “diffuse” risks with cumulative or low‑noise effects that are hard to perceive but have significant long‑term consequences.
That direction of travel is consistent with where large commercial carriers say clients need to move. Allianz’s 2026 analysis noted that companies are prioritising upgrades to AI governance frameworks, human‑in‑the‑loop oversight and incident response for AI‑related failures or misuse, while treating cyber, climate and geopolitical risks as part of a single, connected environment. The report also described 2026 as a “pivotal year” in which AI is shifting from experimentation to scaling, increasing both strategic value and the breadth of risks that organisations must manage.
Re‑Contract is designed not only as an academic programme but also as a bridge to practice. The team plans to explore how to disseminate accessible knowledge on risk to the general public and decision‑makers, including through events and dialogue with policymakers, civil society and industry. That could offer insurers new evidence and frameworks to support conversations with clients about prevention, risk appetite and the limits of insurability in a more systemic risk environment.
Scientific leadership for Re‑Contract will be provided by Marie Gaille, director of research at CNRS and affiliated professor at ENS. The programme will mobilise disciplines across ENS, particularly in the humanities and social sciences and builds on AXA's existing scientific-philantrophy partnership with the school.
Since 2018, AXA has supported ENS‑PSL through the Chaire de Géopolitique du Risque, directed for 10 years by Professor J. Peter Burgess and carried by the Fondation de l’ENS, which has examined how geopolitical dynamics reshape the risk landscape.
"Fragmentation is not a threat like the others: it is an amplifier of all crises. It reinforces precarity, fragility and vulnerability," said AXA CEO Thomas Buberl. "[W]e are proud to support and contribute to this joint research program with ENS, Re-Contract, on the renewal of our social contract, which is the essential condition for continuing to pool risks."
The company said the answers that the programme will give will likely shape not only future regulation and public policy, but also how insurers think about their role in sustaining trust, solidarity and prevention.
