Swiss Re’s latest report highlights a renewable energy boom by the end of the decade - but it also comes with significant risks as the green transition accelerates.
The report projects that global renewable energy capacity will nearly double from 4.4 terawatts in 2024 to 8.5 terawatts by 2030, representing an annual growth rate of 11%. Solar energy’s share of total renewable installations is expected to rise from 42% to 55% during this period.
Wind energy is forecast to account for 24% of renewable energy insurance premiums, contributing approximately US$9 billion of the US$26 billion in total expected renewable energy premiums by 2030.
Regionally, Asia-Pacific is anticipated to lead with 62% of global renewable capacity and 28% of projected premiums, or US$7.4 billion. China will generate 12% of global premiums, totaling US$3.1 billion. Europe is projected to hold 18% of capacity and 31% of premiums, or US$8.3 billion, with wind projects as the primary driver.
Germany is expected to contribute nearly one-fifth of Europe’s premiums at US$1.6 billion, followed by the UK with US$0.8 billion, France with US$0.7 billion, and Spain with US$0.6 billion.
North America is forecast to account for 13% of capacity and 26% of premiums, or US$6.9 billion, with solar, wind, and hydropower making up the majority of the region’s insured renewable projects. Central and South America and Africa are projected to represent 10% and 5% of global premiums, respectively.
According to the International Energy Agency, global investment in the green transition – including mitigation, adaptation, and energy infrastructure – is expected to exceed US$80 trillion by 2040.
Of this, around US$36 trillion will be allocated to renewable electricity generation by 2040, up from US$2.2 trillion in 2024. The report identifies the scaling of proven technologies and grid upgrades as critical factors, with countries such as Australia emerging as hubs for solar and battery storage.
Swiss Re’s analysis notes a transition in insurance portfolios from construction-focused risks to more stable operational exposures. At present, a significant portion of renewable insurance is facultative, reflecting the complexity and innovation in project development. As technologies mature, treaty-based insurance structures are expected to become more prevalent, and construction-related risks may stabilize at 5% to 10% of portfolios by 2040.
Onshore wind projects with established maintenance practices are classified as low-risk, while floating offshore wind, indoor battery storage, and hydro construction projects are considered higher risk. Claims in the renewable sector are commonly driven by mechanical and electrical failures, weather-related events, and human error.
Wind projects frequently encounter gearbox and blade issues, solar installations are susceptible to hail and fire, and battery systems face fire risks from thermal runaway. The report emphasizes the need for underwriting to incorporate claims data and early design engagement to support long-term market sustainability.
These findings come as Swiss Re’s marine and energy re/insurance division observes a period of heightened unpredictability. The division has pointed to how geopolitical tensions, rapid technological change, and shifting trade policies are reshaping risk for marine and energy insurers.
As the energy transition accelerates, underwriters are also contending with unresolved conflicts, regional instability, and new vulnerabilities introduced by advancements such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Swiss Re notes that these factors are prompting a renewed focus on governance, capacity management, and product innovation to address the evolving risk landscape in the sector.
