Pool Re has released a report examining the growth of Islamist terrorism in Africa and its potential implications for the UK terrorism risk landscape.
The report highlights that Africa has become increasingly significant to both Islamic State and al-Qaida. Since the collapse of Islamic State's caliphate in Syria and Iraq in 2019, the Sahel and Somalia have emerged as key regions for advancing the group's agenda.
For al-Qaida, affiliate groups operating in Africa are currently the most successful they have been in terms of territorial control on the continent, according to the report.
Pool Re's Threat Analysis team monitored terrorism-related incidents from July 2024 to July 2025. The data showed a significant increase in Islamist terrorism activity in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region and Somalia.
The report cites the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which describes the Sahel as the "global epicentre of terrorism." The region reportedly accounted for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024.
Somalia has been ranked as the seventh most impacted country by terrorism in the GTI's 2025 assessment. The country is currently facing what the report describes as "dual threats" from both al-Shabaab and Islamic State Somalia.
The report references comments from MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum during his annual threat update on Oct. 16, 2025. McCallum stated that al-Qaida and Islamic State "are once again becoming more ambitious, taking advantage of instability overseas to gain firmer footholds."
The Africa report follows Pool Re's October 2025 threat assessment, which noted that terrorism in the UK is shifting toward lower-sophistication, high-impact tactics involving bladed weapons, arson, and small extremist groups.
Pool Re assessed that Islamic State provinces and al-Qaida affiliates in the Sahel and Somalia are the most operationally capable Islamist terrorist groups in Africa at this time.
While it is unlikely these groups would have the capability to conduct attacks in the UK, Pool Re concluded that the primary domestic threat lies in their propaganda's ability to radicalize individuals to conduct attacks on behalf of Islamic State or al-Qaida on the UK mainland.
