Terrorism in the United Kingdom is showing a shift toward lower-sophistication, high-impact tactics, according to Pool Re’s threat assessment for October 2025.
The report said that recent attacks involving bladed weapons, arson, and small extremist groups represent a changing risk environment that may affect terrorism exposure models used by insurers and reinsurers.
The analysis covered incidents across October that revealed a complex and evolving threat picture. On October 2, 35-year-old Jihad al-Shamie carried out a bladed weapon and vehicle attack at the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester during Yom Kippur. Two people were killed and three injured. Police shot al-Shamie after observing him wearing what appeared to be an explosive device, which was later determined to be a hoax. Investigators stated that al-Shamie was motivated by Islamist ideology.
Pool Re’s threat analysis team assessed that antisemitism continues to play a major role in terrorist ideologies, including Islamist and extreme right-wing movements. The team said the Jewish community remains under heightened threat, particularly during religious observances when attendance increases. The report also noted that international extremist groups often seek to use incidents such as the Manchester attack to advance their propaganda efforts.
Another incident noted in the report involved the use of drones in a suspected terror plot. Belgian authorities arrested three individuals on October 10 on suspicion of planning an attack on political figures, including Prime Minister Bart De Wever. Police discovered a partially assembled improvised explosive device, steel balls, a 3D printer, and materials suggesting an attempt to attach a payload to a drone. Pool Re stated that while most drone-related activity in the UK remains criminal, the technology’s accessibility creates potential for future terrorist applications.
In the UK, a separate October 4 incident at a mosque in Peacehaven, East Sussex, involved an arson attack using an accelerant on the entrance of the building. Worshippers were inside at the time, but no one was injured. Counter Terrorism Policing South East took over the investigation on November 4.
The report also included recent sentencing cases. On October 17, Isa Giga was sentenced to nine years in prison for traveling to Syria to commit acts of terrorism. The same day, Brogan Stewart, Marco Pitzettu, and Christopher Ringrose received a combined 29-year sentence for planning attacks against mosques and synagogues in Leeds. Authorities said the three were motivated by an extreme right-wing ideology.
Pool Re noted that extreme right-wing terrorism continues to represent around 25 % of MI5’s counterterrorism caseload. The group assessed that most attacks inspired by this ideology are carried out by small groups or individuals using bladed weapons, vehicles, or fire, rather than large-scale explosives.
The report concluded that these developments illustrate a transition toward attacks requiring limited resources but capable of causing significant disruption. Such events, Pool Re said, continue to shape the UK’s terrorism threat landscape and raise considerations for how insurers and reinsurers assess and price risk.
How should the reinsurance sector update its exposure models in light of these evolving low-sophistication threats? Share your views below.
