No hurricanes made US landfall in 2025, but MS Amlin said this was a matter of luck during a season where 60% of hurricanes reached Category 5 strength and insured losses from US storms could rise nearly 50% under a 2°C global warming scenario.
MS Amlin noted that the total number of named storms and hurricanes came in below both forecasts and the long-term average, yet the season recorded an unprecedented share of high-intensity storms. Category 5 hurricanes, defined by sustained winds above 157mph, accounted for 60% of hurricanes, the highest share on record. A chart in the firm’s analysis covering 1990 to 2025 shows 2025 with the largest proportion of storms reaching Category 3 and above, including Category 5.
Hurricane Melissa was central to that picture. The storm made landfall in Jamaica with sustained winds of 185mph, making it one of the strongest recorded landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic and the strongest on record for Jamaica. Its winds increased from 68mph to 139mph in a single day, an example of rapid intensification that MS Amlin said remains difficult to forecast.
Moody’s RMS estimated private market insured losses in Jamaica from Melissa at $3–5 billion, with a best estimate of $3.5 billion, driven mainly by wind damage and business interruption to commercial properties such as hotels, resorts, multi-family dwellings and high-rise buildings. Economic losses in Jamaica could potentially exceed the island’s 2024 GDP of about $20 billion. Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions group projected $2.2–4.2 billion in insured losses to onshore property, adding that the total economic toll will be far higher given low insurance penetration.
MS Amlin’s peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience found that insured US hurricane losses could rise nearly 50% under a 2°C warming scenario. The research indicated that Category 4 and 5 hurricanes with winds above 130mph could become more frequent and maintain strength farther north. New York’s insured losses could increase by 64%, Rhode Island and Massachusetts may see more than 70% growth in average annual loss, and Florida could see a 44% rise. The Carolinas may face a 60% increase in losses during major storm years, about three times the projected increase in Texas. A repeat of the 2022 hurricane season, which produced $62 billion in insured losses, could exceed $90 billion under the warming scenario.
“The evidence is mounting – risk appears to be rising faster than recognition or response,” MS Amlin CEO Andrew Carrier said, noting growing “asymmetry in the market” where climate-related losses are rising faster than pricing and coverage terms. He said insurers can serve as “climate shock absorbers for society - but only if risks are priced and structured in line with today’s reality.”
Sam Phibbs, MS Amlin’s head of catastrophe research, said the lack of US landfall this year was due to luck rather than any long-term trend and described the season as a cautionary tale. Warmer oceans, he said, will allow hurricanes to maintain their strength farther north, threatening cities along the upper East Coast, regions historically less exposed and less prepared. He pointed to the need for stronger building codes across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic to bring standards in line with states such as Florida and Louisiana, warning that without such measures the protection gap will widen.
