A new study forecasts that insured losses from US hurricanes could increase by nearly 50% under a 2°C global warming scenario.
Global re/insurer MS Amlin’s research outlines changes in the frequency, strength, and geographic impact of hurricanes across the US East Coast. Areas traditionally considered less exposed to hurricane activity – such as New York and Boston – are expected to see the sharpest relative increases in loss estimates.
The report estimates that insured losses in New York could rise by 64%, with Rhode Island and Massachusetts potentially experiencing increases of over 70% in average annual loss. Florida is expected to face the largest absolute increase, with a projected 44% rise in insured hurricane-related losses.
Warming ocean temperatures are cited as a primary factor, allowing Category 4 and 5 storms with wind speeds over 130 mph to persist longer and reach farther north. In high-loss storm years, the Carolinas could see insured losses rise by 60%, which is approximately three times higher than the projected increases for Texas.
The study also modeled a repeat of the 2022 hurricane season – which produced US$62 billion in insured losses – under a 2°C warming scenario. In that case, losses would surpass US$90 billion.
The publication comes amid heightened catastrophe-related pressures across the sector. MS Amlin itself recently reported an increase in its net claims ratio, in part due to elevated hurricane activity during the past cycle.
Historical data trends also support the study’s conclusions. According to MS Amlin’s former head of property, average economic losses from hurricanes in the US have increased by roughly US$22 billion each decade since 1990.
Much of the rise is attributed to the growing concentration of property and population along coastal areas, which amplifies both the frequency and financial scale of insured events.
The broader global catastrophe picture also reflects this pattern. Insured losses from natural disasters in 2024 exceeded US$140 billion for the fifth consecutive year, according to market-wide estimates.
MS Amlin CEO Andrew Carrier (pictured above) said the rate of increase in risk appears to be outpacing the industry’s ability to recognize or respond to it.
“Asymmetry in the market is becoming more pronounced. Climate-related losses are rising, yet pricing and coverage terms are failing to keep pace. Insurers can act as climate shock absorbers for society – but only if risks are priced and structured in line with today’s reality,” said Carrier.
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