Hurricane Melissa is expected to bring destructive conditions, with wind speeds at higher elevations and windward slopes potentially reaching up to 30% greater than the sustained winds and gusts reported by the National Hurricane Center, according to insights from Guy Carpenter.
The reinsurance specialist reports that rainfall totals in eastern Jamaica could reach 15 to 30 inches, with localized maximum amounts of up to 40 inches possible. The hurricane is then forecast to cross southeastern Cuba, weakening to a Category 3 storm as it moves through the region.
After impacting Jamaica and Cuba, Melissa is expected to continue its path across the southeastern and Central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos. Guy Carpenter notes that sustained wind speeds in these areas could remain near 100 mph even after the storm’s initial landfalls. The combination of storm surge and 6 to 12 inches of rainfall is likely to result in significant local flooding.
Later in the week, there is potential for Melissa to approach Bermuda as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. Guy Carpenter highlights that forecast errors at this range are considerable, with track deviations averaging about 150 miles and intensity errors exceeding 20 mph. Greater forecast certainty is expected by Tuesday afternoon, once Melissa has made landfall in Cuba and Jamaica.
Historically, only five major hurricanes – Category 3 or higher – have made landfall in Jamaica, with Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 being the only Category 4 hurricane to do so directly, making landfall with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.
Guy Carpenter points out that if the radius is expanded to include storms passing within 50 miles of Jamaica, five Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have come this close, but Gilbert remains the only direct landfall. Melissa, currently forecast to make landfall in southwestern Jamaica with winds of 160 mph, has no direct historical analog.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was previously forecasted to be more active than usual, with nine meteorological research organizations predicting activity above historical averages, according to a recent Moody’s note.
The season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is expected to produce more named storms and hurricanes than the long-term average, though overall activity is forecast to be lower than the levels observed in 2023 and 2024.
The average forecast across these organizations calls for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, compared to the 1950–2024 average of 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
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