Research on the effects of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) and diabetes treatments such as GLP-1 drugs indicate that widespread adoption could reduce mortality in the US by 3.5% by 2045 in a central scenario.
Reinsurance Group of America’s (RGA) study analyzes data from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Hong Kong to assess the long-term impact of AOMs on population health.
The research also presents optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, with projected US mortality reductions of 8.8% and 1.0%, respectively. The study uses assumptions related to drug effectiveness, uptake, and relative risk to estimate outcomes over a 20-year period.
In the UK, the central scenario projects a 2.0% reduction in mortality by 2045, while Canada and Hong Kong could see decreases of 2.6% and 1.4%, respectively. The largest mortality improvements are expected among people ages 45-59, with the smallest reductions among those 85 and older.
The report finds that population-level morbidity, including cancer incidence, could also decline, though the reductions are expected to be smaller than those for mortality. Insured groups and annuitants are projected to experience less pronounced improvements compared to the general population, attributed to lower average BMI in these groups.
“We believe that anti-obesity medications will have a meaningful benefit on general population-level mortality. This will differ by geography, largely reflecting the obesity profiles of different markets, and by age, sex, and access to medicines,” said Tony Cheng (pictured above), president and CEO of RGA. He added that insured groups may see a smaller impact due to their lower average BMI.
Cost remains a barrier to broader use of incretin-based therapies, but RGA expects that increased competition and the introduction of generic and oral formulations will lead to lower prices. The next generation of these therapies is anticipated to provide additional benefits for diabetes management and weight loss.
Researchers are also exploring the use of incretin-based drugs for a wider range of medical conditions, including neurodegenerative disorders and substance abuse. There is growing interest in their potential for disease prevention, given their anti-inflammatory properties and effects on metabolism and satiety.
“This is a fast-moving space with significant uncertainty, but the potential of these drugs is exciting,” Cheng said. He noted that as more indications are approved and adoption grows among patients with existing illnesses, these therapies could have a substantial impact on public health.
These findings are consistent with recent research from Swiss Re, which projects that, under optimistic conditions, GLP-1 medications could lower all-cause mortality in the US by up to 6.4% by 2045 and by just over 5% in the UK.
Both reinsurers’ models highlight the potential for these drugs to significantly impact public health, especially in countries with high obesity rates and robust uptake of GLP-1 therapies. Swiss Re sees major mortality impact from widespread GLP-1 drug use
The urgency in addressing obesity is underscored by the fact that rising obesity rates have contributed to stagnating life expectancy in high-income countries. Obesity is now linked to seven of the 10 leading causes of death, including heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, and various cancers.
However, Swiss Re’s research also emphasizes that the greatest benefits from GLP-1 drugs will only be realized if they are combined with meaningful lifestyle changes. The company’s modeling suggests that medication alone may not be enough to sustain weight loss and health improvements; ongoing efforts in diet and physical activity are critical to maximizing long-term outcomes and minimizing the risk of weight regain.
