Swiss Re’s latest research indicates that the widespread use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs may reduce mortality rates in the United States and the United Kingdom over the next two decades.
The company’s modeling suggests that, under optimistic conditions, GLP-1 medications could lower all-cause mortality in the US by up to 6.4% by 2045. In the UK, the projected reduction is slightly above 5%.
The analysis centers on the US and UK, where obesity rates are among the highest in developed markets and where the uptake of GLP-1 drugs has been robust. In the US, more than 40% of adults are classified as obese, while the UK’s adult obesity rate stands at approximately 30%.
Swiss Re notes that rising obesity has contributed to stagnating life expectancy in high-income countries, with the condition now linked to seven of the ten leading causes of death, such as ischemic heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, and various cancers.
Paul Murray (pictured above), CEO life & health reinsurance at Swiss Re, said, “GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic. Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication.”
“As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives,” Murray said.
The rise of GLP-1 drugs is creating new challenges for insurers as they assess risks and manage long-term health outcomes. Previously, Swiss Re’s behavioral research experts have pointed to the potential for behavioral science to help insurers adapt, especially as the efficacy and long-term impact of these medications remain uncertain.
A key concern for insurers is the potential for weight regain after patients discontinue GLP-1 medications. While these drugs can help with initial weight loss, long-term success often depends on sustained behavioral changes such as diet and exercise.
Swiss Re’s report highlights that the most favorable scenario depends on broad adoption of GLP-1 therapies, adherence to treatment, and, crucially, the implementation of lifestyle changes that support long-term health.
The company points out that, without these changes, studies have found weight regain and rebound effects are common, with some patients regaining all lost weight within a year of stopping the medication.
The research also considers a more cautious scenario, where uptake is limited, discontinuation rates are high – often due to side effects – and weight regain is widespread after treatment ends. In this case, Swiss Re projects cumulative mortality reductions of just 2.3% for the US and 1.8% for the UK by 2045.
"GLP-1 drugs could be the medical innovation we've been waiting for to reshape mortality trends,” said Natalie Kelly, head of L&H Global Underwriting, Claims and R&D at Swiss Re.
Kelly said that the impact on underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could be substantial, emphasizing the need for insurers to maintain a robust, evidence-based approach as the use of GLP-1 drugs evolves.
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