Global insured losses from natural catastrophes reached US$80 billion in the first half of 2025, based on preliminary estimates from Swiss Re Institute.
The figure is nearly twice the 10-year average and accounts for more than half of the US$150 billion (in 2025 prices) projected for the full year, following a long-term annual growth trend of 5–7%.
With natural catastrophe activity often higher in the second half of the year, total insured losses for 2025 could surpass the forecast.
Swiss Re Institute has previously noted that in peak-loss years, insured losses can more than double the long-term average. This reflects a shift in the risk landscape, where large-scale disasters such as Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017 – events that once were considered statistical outliers – are now increasingly seen as part of a continuing pattern of loss activity.
The January wildfires in Los Angeles County were the costliest insured wildfire event on record, with losses estimated at US$40 billion. Prolonged Santa Ana winds and limited rainfall contributed to the rapid spread of the fires, which destroyed over 16,000 structures in areas with some of the highest concentrations of high-value single-family homes in the US.
Wildfire-related insured losses have increased in the past decade as higher temperatures, more frequent droughts, and shifting rainfall patterns coincide with suburban expansion and concentration of valuable assets.
Before 2015, wildfires accounted for about 1% of all natural catastrophe claims. That share has risen to 7%, with eight of the 10 costliest wildfire events occurring in the past 10 years.
In 2024, global insured losses reached US$137 billion, marking the fifth consecutive year in which losses exceeded US$100 billion. Economic losses for the year totaled US$318 billion, leaving an estimated US$181 billion protection gap.
Most wildfire losses originate in the US, particularly California, where expansion in high-risk wildland urban interface (WUI) zones has been significant. Since 1990, exposure growth in WUI zones has outpaced growth in non-WUI zones by a factor of 1.8 nationally and 1.9 in California.
Severe thunderstorms (severe convective storms, SCS) generated US$31 billion in insured losses in the first half of 2025. While several storms brought large hail and tornado outbreaks in the US, losses were below Swiss Re Institute’s trend estimate of US$35 billion and the record-setting years of 2023 and 2024.
The institute noted that SCS remain a major contributor to global catastrophe losses, with year-to-year variations highlighting their ongoing risk to property and infrastructure.
Urban growth in hazard-prone areas, increased asset values, and inflation have magnified the financial effect of severe thunderstorms. The institute projects that losses from these events will continue to rise as exposure and rebuilding costs grow.
Swiss Re group chief economist Jérôme Haegeli said the most effective way to increase resilience and safety is to prioritize mitigation and adaptation measures.
"The strongest lever to increase the resilience and safety of communities is to double down on mitigation and adaptation. It's here that everyone can help reduce losses before they occur,” he said.
Other adaptation strategies include stronger building codes, stricter zoning laws, expanded flood defenses, and discouraging development in high-risk areas.
Historically, 60% of annual insured catastrophe losses occur in the second half of the year. Swiss Re Institute said losses fluctuate significantly due to weather variability, and if current trends continue, 2025 losses could surpass the US$150 billion projection, depending on developments in major perils over the coming months.
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