Hawaii tsunami alert reignites concern over rising global earthquake losses – Swiss Re

Major events reveal growing gaps in loss projections and global protection levels

Hawaii tsunami alert reignites concern over rising global earthquake losses – Swiss Re

Reinsurance News

By Kenneth Araullo

The recent tsunami warning in Hawaii following an earthquake has renewed focus on global seismic risk, with Swiss Re data showing that major quakes have repeatedly caused billions of dollars in insured and economic losses over the past three decades.

According to Swiss Re Institute, the largest insured loss in recent history was the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan, which generated insured losses of US$50.2 billion and total economic losses of US$301.4 billion.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake in California resulted in US$33.3 billion in insured losses and US$95.8 billion in economic costs. New Zealand's 2011 Christchurch earthquake and its aftershocks reached US$25.1 billion in insured losses and US$31.4 billion in total economic impact.

The broader natural catastrophe environment remains highly active, with Gallagher Re reporting that global disaster losses in the first quarter of 2025 alone reached at least US$110 billion. Insurers and reinsurers absorbed over US$61 billion in insured losses during that period, nearly double the 10-year average for Q1.

Monica Ningen, CEO of property and casualty reinsurance US at Swiss Re, said her recent experience in Hawaii during the tsunami warning reinforced the importance of preparedness.

"The recent earthquake and tsunami are a powerful reminder that mega-quakes of this scale are not outliers, but part of a pattern we observe approximately every ten years. That cadence demands more than awareness – it demands action,” Ningen said.

New highs for catastrophe losses

Swiss Re has previously projected that insured losses in peak disaster years could reach as high as US$300 billion globally. Earthquakes in densely populated urban areas are among the top contributors to this scenario due to rising property values, concentrated infrastructure, and the cascading impact on supply chains.

Other high-cost events included the 2010 Chile earthquake and tsunami, which caused US$11.8 billion in insured losses and US$44.4 billion in economic damages, and a separate quake the same year in Darfield, New Zealand, that produced US$11.4 billion in insured losses.

In 2016, Kumamoto, Japan, experienced earthquakes that led to US$6.9 billion in insured losses and US$36.3 billion in overall costs. More recently, the 2023 earthquakes in Turkey resulted in US$6.6 billion in insured losses and US$61.9 billion in total economic damage.

Inaccurate catastrophe models?

Swiss Re has also noted that recent large-scale disasters, including the Turkey earthquakes, were significantly underestimated by catastrophe models. Loss projections in the immediate aftermath fell well below actual results, revealing gaps in existing modeling approaches for seismic events.

Japan has seen multiple significant events beyond these, including the 1995 Kobe earthquake, which caused US$5.2 billion in insured losses and US$174.6 billion in total damage. Offshore quakes in Honshu in 2021 and 2022 accounted for an additional US$7.9 billion in insured losses combined, with economic costs exceeding US$22 billion.

Earthquakes in emerging markets such as Myanmar have highlighted persistent protection gaps. Despite significant losses to local economies, insurance penetration remains low, leaving many households and businesses without financial support to rebuild.

Swiss Re and other reinsurers have pointed to these events as a reminder that resilience-building efforts, including access to insurance coverage, remain uneven worldwide, even as seismic risks increase.

Swiss Re notes that across these events, global insured losses from major earthquakes have reached more than US$229.5 billion since 1990, while total economic losses have surpassed US$2.3 trillion at 2025 price levels.

Key data on major earthquake losses (Swiss Re Institute, 2025 prices):

  • 2011, Japan (Mw 9.0): US$50.2 billion insured losses, US$301.4 billion economic losses
  • 1994, California, US (Mw 6.7): US$33.3 billion insured, US$95.8 billion economic
  • 2011, Christchurch, NZ (Mw 6.1): US$25.1 billion insured, US$31.4 billion economic
  • 2010, Chile (Mw 8.8): US$11.8 billion insured, US$44.4 billion economic
  • 2010, Darfield, NZ (Mw 7.0): US$11.4 billion insured, US$14.1 billion economic
  • 2016, Kumamoto, Japan: US$6.9 billion insured, US$36.3 billion economic
  • 2023, Turkey (Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5): US$6.6 billion insured, US$61.9 billion economic
  • 1995, Kobe, Japan (Mw 6.9): US$5.2 billion insured, US$174.6 billion economic
  • 2021–2022, Honshu, Japan (Mw 7.1 and Mw 7.3): US$7.9 billion insured combined, over US$22 billion economic

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