QBE has warned that Asia’s maritime industry faces a more complex risk environment in 2026, with worsening weather, persistent labour shortages, geopolitical uncertainty, technology-related threats, and cargo fire risks expected to weigh on shipping operations across the region.
In its latest marine insurance risk outlook for Asia, titled Braving New Worlds, QBE said risk conditions are becoming more difficult for maritime businesses as environmental, economic, and operational pressures increasingly overlap. The report identifies five main themes expected to shape the sector in the year ahead: extreme weather, manpower shortages, technology-related risks, tariffs and geopolitical conflict, and vessel fires linked to mis-declared cargo.
QBE said the region is already highly exposed to severe weather, noting that the western North Pacific - which includes the South China Sea, Philippine Sea, and East China Sea - accounts for nearly one-third of all tropical cyclones globally. According to the report, rising frequency and intensity of storms are worsening seafaring conditions, increasing the likelihood of vessel collisions, groundings, cargo damage, route disruption, and port closures. It added that changing environmental conditions, including rising sea temperatures in the Arabian Gulf and interest in new routes such as the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage, are introducing fresh operational hazards for shipowners and operators.
The report also highlighted labour constraints as a growing source of operational and safety pressure. QBE said crew and officer turnover remains high, while the industry is becoming less attractive to younger workers. It cited estimates showing the global fleet will be short nearly 90,000 officers in 2026, increasing reliance on older workers and heightening concerns around fatigue, health, and skills gaps. The report noted that about 25% of marine casualties are already attributed to tiredness.
On technology, QBE said risks remain unevenly distributed. While many operators still face limited exposure, others are confronting acute vulnerabilities tied to cyber threats, GPS jamming or spoofing, aging systems, and the growing complexity of decarbonisation and automation efforts. The report said autonomous vessels continue to face legal and insurance uncertainties, even as the International Maritime Organization works on a Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships code slated to enter force in 2032.
QBE also pointed to ongoing trade tariffs, sanctions, wars, and terrorism as key risks prolonging uncertainty for Asian shipping. It said tariffs can reduce freight volumes, strand inventory, and raise insured cargo values and shipping costs, while disruptions in chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz can affect vessels of all types, not just tankers.
Meanwhile, vessel fires remain a serious concern amid rising shipments of hazardous goods and growing volumes of mis-declared cargo. QBE said serious incidents on container ships are increasingly linked to inaccurate cargo declarations, while fire and explosion incidents across all vessel types reached 250 in 2024, up 20% year over year and the highest level in a decade.
The insurer said the evolving landscape reinforces the importance of stronger risk management, technical oversight, and resilience planning across the maritime sector.
