Antique Stock Broking has initiated coverage of Canara HSBC Life Insurance Co. Ltd., assigning a “Buy” recommendation and outlining its view on the insurer’s risk-return profile as the company lifts its protection business and maintains bancassurance-led growth in India. The initiation follows Canara HSBC Life’s first year as a listed company on the BSE and NSE. Antique has set a target price of ₹190 per share, indicating potential upside of about 26.7% from the previous close. The brokerage’s estimates place the stock at 1.7 times and 1.5 times its projected price-to-embedded value for fiscal years 2027 and 2028, respectively.
In its initiation report cited by Business Standard, Antique said Canara HSBC Life recorded an individual weighted premium income (WPI) compound annual growth rate of about 21% over fiscal 2015-25, with growth of roughly 20% in year-to-date fiscal 2026. Over the same period, Indian life insurance industry growth on this metric was around 10% to 11%, according to the brokerage. The company’s individual WPI market share increased from 1.6% in fiscal 2015 to 2.9% in year-to-date fiscal 2026. Recently disclosed results for the nine months ended Dec. 31, 2025, are consistent with that trend. Individual WPI reached ₹1,915.3 crore, up 20.5% year on year. Total annualized premium equivalent (APE) was ₹2,095 crore, a 22.3% rise from ₹1,713.3 crore a year earlier.
New business premium from individual and group lines grew 28.1% year on year to ₹2,929.4 crore, and renewal premium rose 34.4% to ₹4,001.9 crore. Total premium income for the period was ₹6,931.4 crore, an increase of 31.6%. Assets under management stood at ₹46,888.7 crore, up 17.2% from the prior-year period. Profit after tax was ₹91.9 crore for the nine months, 8.2% higher than a year earlier. On an APE basis, the product mix comprised unit-linked products at 61%, annuities at 12%, non-participating savings at 13%, non-participating protection at 7%, and participating products at 5%. Persistency ratios were reported at 85.6% for the 13th month and 59.2% for the 61st month.
Canara HSBC Life operates a distribution model in which bancassurance is the primary channel, built around its promoter banks, Canara Bank and HSBC, with Punjab National Bank as a shareholder and additional bank partners and agency channels supplementing the network. Antique noted that concerns in the market about the insurer’s dependence on bancassurance remain a factor but said it considers this risk to be reflected in current valuations. The brokerage expects growth to be supported by deeper use of existing bank partnerships and a step-up in the agency franchise over time. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Canara HSBC Life signed a bancassurance partnership with Equitas Small Finance Bank, providing access to customers through 994 outlets across 18 states and union territories, including locations in South and West India.
A central element in Antique’s investment case is the shift in business mix toward protection, following reductions in goods and services tax (GST) on certain term products. Total protection business for the nine-month period increased 126% year on year, with credit life up 48% and individual protection reported at three times the previous quarter’s level. The share of protection business in APE terms rose from 4% in fiscal 2025 to 7% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Antique projects this share could reach about 10% by fiscal 2028, with contributions from both retail protection and group term insurance.
Anuj Mathur, managing director and chief executive officer of Canara HSBC Life, linked the change in mix to tax measures and ongoing regulatory developments. “The quarter gone by represents significant strengthening of our business momentum, underpinned by sustained growth across key performance metrics including stronger persistency and accelerated protection-led growth supported by the recent GST reforms introduced by the government of India,” Mathur said, as reported by Press Trust of India.
Mathur also referred to the Sabka Bima, Sabki Raksha (Amendment of Insurance Laws) Bill, 2025, which proposes to allow up to 100% foreign direct investment in the Indian insurance sector. “It is encouraging to see policy intent further translating into practical enablers for adoption. The growth momentum has been reinforced by the Sabka Bima, Sabki Raksha (Amendment of Insurance Laws) Bill, 2025, which seeks to deepen coverage and build a more enabling ecosystem by allowing up to 100% FDI to boost capital, capability, and competition in the sector,” he said.
For the nine months to Dec. 31, 2025, Canara HSBC Life reported value of new business (VNB) of ₹412.9 crore, up 36.8% from ₹301.9 crore in the prior-year period. VNB margins increased to 19.7% from 17.6%, an expansion of 210 basis points, supported by the higher share of protection and the overall product mix. Embedded value was reported at ₹6,867.8 crore, with an operating return on embedded value of 18.2% on a rolling 12-month basis. The expense ratio, measured as total expenses over total premium, was 18.7%, compared with 20% a year earlier. The solvency ratio stood at 191%, versus 209% in the prior period and above the prescribed minimum.
Antique’s forecasts incorporate compound annual growth of roughly 17% to 19% in APE, VNB, and embedded value over fiscal 2026-28. The brokerage expects VNB margins to increase by at least 50 basis points per year, while the company manages the impact of GST input tax credit disallowance and maintains spending on agency channel development. Mathur said the insurer intends to continue working with bank partners and agents to broaden coverage while building capabilities across products and operations. “Looking ahead, we will stay anchored to delivering sustainable growth, strengthening partnerships, accelerating product innovation, and building capabilities that improve customer experience and outcomes, so we can serve families better as they prepare for uncertainties of Life,” he said.
In its note, Antique pointed to several risks for investors. These include the company’s high dependence on bancassurance for new business flows, the possibility of regulatory or tax changes affecting product economics in India, and execution risks in expanding the agency channel and managing costs. Canara HSBC Life, founded in 2007 and headquartered in Gurugram, operates more than 100 branch offices and distributes through multiple channels, including banks and digital platforms. The company’s development in protection, annuity, and savings lines will be of interest to insurance professionals tracking how Indian life insurers balance growth, capital, and channel strategy within the wider Asia-Pacific market.
