The UK may have recorded one of its hottest years on record, but the defining insurance impact has not been wildfire devastation. Instead, the real climate signal is appearing in cracked walls, shifting soils and a surge in subsidence claims that now represent a significant share of total property payouts.
For Glyn Brookes-Humphrey (pictured), of Woodgate & Clark, 2025 was exceptional in its combination of extremes. “It was the warmest year on record going back to 1884, the sunniest since 1910, and the driest since 1974,” he said. “It was a pretty unique year for everything combined.”
Despite more than 800 wildfire incidents across the UK, most were confined to remote moorland and heathland, with limited property damage. The UK has not experienced the kind of residential destruction seen overseas. The impact has been more subtle, and, in some cases, more financially significant.
“We’ve had a couple of surges in the last three or four years, but 2025 was a particularly bad year for subsidence,” Brookes-Humphrey said. “That’s been a definite consequence of the latest dry spells.”
In the first half of 2025 alone, £153 million of subsidence-related claims were recorded out of £886 million in total property payouts - around one sixth of all claims costs.
Traditionally concentrated in clay-heavy regions such as London and the Southeast, subsidence exposure could broaden. The British Geological Survey has projected both frequency and geographic spread may increase over coming decades, with areas including York and Cheshire potentially affected.
For insurers, that raises questions about excess levels, postcode pricing and long-term risk appetite. Of all heat-related perils, Brookes-Humphrey believes subsidence is the one already influencing underwriting thinking.
“Of the general perils, that’s probably the only one where heat is on their minds in relation to how they’re going to write the risk,” he said.
Wildfire, by contrast, remains largely peripheral for mainstream property underwriters. Fire has “never really been on the radar” in the UK in the way flooding and storms traditionally have, Brookes-Humphrey said, and even after last year’s extreme heat he sees little evidence of a strategic shift.
That does not mean heat is absent from fire-related losses. Instead, it is showing up in less dramatic but more frequent incidents.
“It’s more the associated losses,” he said. “Somebody has a barbecue in the back garden, it gets a little bit out of control and sets fire to a tree. Under normal circumstances, that would just be put out with a bucket of water. But because everything’s tinder dry, those are starting to spread a lot quicker.”
In some cases, the consequences extend beyond physical damage. Where fires have led to road closures, power outages or restricted access, business interruption claims have followed, reinforcing the point that exposure is evolving even if underwriting strategy has yet to materially adjust.
While Brookes-Humphrey is cautious about overstating long-term change, he does acknowledge that sustained periods of heat could gradually alter how properties are used and managed.
“You’d probably find that air conditioning would become more prevalent,” he said. “That, on its own, creates a bit of a different risk.”
Increased adoption of cooling systems, alongside the continued growth of solar installations, may introduce new underwriting considerations. Warmer conditions also tend to change behaviour, even if only temporarily.
“The warmer it is, the nicer it is, the more people are out,” he said. “There’s definitely a possibility of an increased fire risk in relation to that.”
More outdoor gatherings, more barbecues and more open windows may not amount to a structural shift, but they do widen exposure at the margins. In that sense, heat-related risk is not confined to extreme events; it also filters into everyday activity.
From a claims perspective, however, the core principles remain consistent. Early contact, swift triage and rapid mitigation are as critical for fire as they are for escape-of-water losses. The difference lies more in complexity than in approach, with fire claims often requiring earlier involvement of forensic specialists and structural expertise.
“Flooding isn’t so random anymore,” Brookes-Humphrey said. “Fire, especially wildfire, is pretty random at the moment, until we understand it better.”
The industry largely continues to view extreme heat as an episodic shock rather than a baseline shift. Yet with subsidence already representing a significant proportion of total claims spend, the question is not whether climate exposure exists, but how quickly underwriting appetite and modelling adapt to it.
The UK may not have experienced a defining wildfire event. But beneath the headlines, the underlying risk profile of property is quietly evolving.
