Antares Global CEO Mike van der Straaten outlined expectations for the reinsurance market ahead of the Jan. 1, 2026, renewals, noting reinsurers are likely to maintain pricing discipline. Increased competition and gradually returning capacity are expected to put downward pressure on rates.
As capital availability expands, cedents may see modest improvements in terms, especially for non-peak zone risks, though maintaining price adequacy could be more difficult. Van der Straaten said reinsurers remain selective, but the balance of power is shifting toward buyers.
If loss activity stays within modeled expectations, a gradual easing of catastrophe market terms is likely.
The property retrocession market has become more favorable for buyers, with significant price softening in 2025. Rates in retrocession fell more sharply than in primary catastrophe reinsurance, and capacity was supported by both traditional reinsurers and alternative capital sources.
Demand remains strong, driven by inflation and growing catastrophe exposures, though supply is still somewhat constrained. Competitive pricing and accessible retro protection are expected to continue in 2026 unless major catastrophes or capital withdrawals occur.
In the casualty market, “good years” are under scrutiny as reserve deterioration in prior accident years raises doubts about previous optimism. Competition and strong cedent relationships have limited reinsurers’ ability to push ceding commissions, a trend likely to persist unless casualty capacity tightens.
Specialty lines face challenges as renewals approach. For aviation risks, reinsurers seek transparency around exposure accumulation and clear war exclusions. Van der Straaten emphasized the need for stronger risk controls, clearer policy wordings, and coordinated responses to geopolitical conflicts, along with improved data sharing and proactive claims management.
The cyber market’s slowdown limits growth, but systemic risk and aggregation potential remain concerns. Reinsurers are responding with tighter coverage terms, disciplined pricing, real-time threat monitoring, and innovation in cyber modeling.
Political violence products are adapting to volatile geopolitical conditions. Reinsurers seek improved scenario modeling, clearer war-on-territory exclusions, and stricter underwriting in unstable regions, with dynamic pricing structures.
Global tariff negotiations, higher tariffs, and supply chain disruptions are increasing risk in trade credit, political risk, and marine cargo lines. Reinsurers are monitoring accumulations and capacity closely.
Swiss Re has previously warned that a “stagflationary” US tariff regime and rising trade barriers may erode insurance resilience and reduce global risk capacity. The Swiss Re Institute forecasts global GDP growth will slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2024.
Competition in renewable energy is also driving down rates and loosening terms, raising concerns where technological development may outpace risk understanding. Van der Straaten said reinsurers must prioritize underwriting discipline and long-term sustainability.
The outlook for global insurance premiums reflects these pressures. Total global premiums are projected to grow by 2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, down from 5.2% in 2024. In non-life, premium growth is expected to decline to 2.6% from 4.7% in 2024, reflecting softer market conditions and more competition.
Life insurance, which posted 6.1% growth in 2024, is forecast to grow 1% in 2025, before improving to 2.4% in 2026 as interest rates stabilize .
Looking ahead, persistent inflation, geopolitical instability, and rising protectionism may create volatility in capital markets and impact investment returns, insured values, and loss costs.
In the catastrophe market, climate change and secondary perils remain a priority, with exposure to systemic risks in supply chains and infrastructure likely to challenge markets unprepared for sudden shifts.
“We at Antares remain stable and committed to our broker and client partners. We are in a positive mood, with a strong foundation to develop our business further and navigate the market conditions in the forthcoming years,” van der Straaten said.
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