Super Typhoon Ragasa, the strongest storm of the 2025 season, has caused significant disruption in Taiwan and is now affecting Hong Kong and southern China. Howden Re’s APAC and Analytics teams are evaluating the storm’s impacts, future risks, and historical context.
Ragasa prompted Hong Kong authorities to issue the highest No. 10 storm signal, a measure last seen during Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, which resulted in nearly HK$3.7 billion in damages.
Early assessments and public reports indicate that Ragasa’s overall damage may be less severe than Mangkhut’s, attributed to early warnings, enhanced preparation, and improved resilience measures.
Tim Edwards, head of Howden Re International Analytics, noted that Ragasa could ultimately be less costly than Mangkhut, despite Category 3 strength winds affecting Hong Kong and nearby areas.
He said the main concern is the combination of high winds and storm surge, even though rainfall is forecast to be lower. Edwards also pointed out that Hong Kong remains one of the few markets that relies heavily on pro-rata reinsurance, which could mean a notable impact for reinsurers in the region.
“Our analysis demonstrates no clear time trend in severe typhoon frequency impacting Hong Kong,” Edwards said.
In Taiwan, Ragasa did not make landfall, but its wide circulation brought heavy rain to the island’s east. In Hualien, a landslide dam collapse triggered flash flooding into a downstream valley, resulting in multiple casualties and forcing thousands to evacuate amid ongoing risks.
Jimmy Tsai, managing director of Howden Re Taiwan, said, “Our thoughts are with the people of Hualien and all those affected by this devastating tragedy. The loss of life and the hardship faced by local communities is deeply saddening.”
Tsai referenced previous storms, noting that in Taiwan, economic damages from typhoons often far exceed insured losses by factors of 20 to 50, as seen with Typhoon Morakot in 2009 and Typhoon Soudelor in 2015. Tsai also said that the worst-affected areas this time were rural, with limited industrial presence, so insured losses are expected to remain modest.
The broader insurance landscape in Asia continues to be shaped by a significant protection gap. According to Verisk, insured losses cover only 12% of economic losses in the region, a figure that highlights the ongoing challenges for insurers and reinsurers when major storms like Ragasa occur.
This gap is driven by factors such as low insurance penetration and the high proportion of uninsured property, which can leave communities vulnerable to financial shocks from natural disasters.
Catastrophic surge and wind have historically defined Hong Kong’s most damaging storms, such as the Great Typhoon of 1937 and Wanda in 1962. Myrto Papaspiliou, head of catastrophe model research at Howden Re, said that while storm surge remains the primary loss driver, modern flood defenses would likely prevent devastation on the scale of those historic events.
Papaspiliou also noted that as Ragasa moves inland toward northern Vietnam and Laos, forecasts indicate flooding, landslides, and infrastructure disruption as the system interacts with mountainous terrain.
“Agricultural regions may face crop damage and prolonged recovery challenges, particularly given the limited insurance penetration in these areas,” she said.
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