Guy Carpenter has released updated Global and Regional Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) Indices, reflecting reinsurance pricing trends through July 1.
Guy Carpenter noted that its indices track year-over-year pricing changes on a consistent program base and incorporate shifts in exposure levels, purchasing behavior, and market conditions.
As of mid-2025, the indices showed a decline in reinsurance pricing across several key regions. Globally, the property catastrophe ROL index decreased by 8.1%. In the US, the index declined 6.7%, while the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region recorded a larger drop of 15.9%.
The indices, including additional regional updates, will be revised again following the Jan. 1, 2026, renewal cycle.
Notably, in the first half of 2025, catastrophe events, including the Los Angeles wildfires, contributed to $40 billion in insured losses. The wildfires accounted for 59% of total insured catastrophe losses for the period.
Despite the scale of the events, Guy Carpenter indicated that these losses have not significantly affected reinsurer capital positions or dampened market appetite heading into the second half of the year.
In its report, Guy Carpenter highlighted that casualty reinsurance renewals during spring 2025 reflected broader shifts in market strategy, with carriers reassessing trading relationships and underwriting structures across multiple program lines.
Excess of loss placements in the casualty segment continued to face upward rate pressure. Guy Carpenter attributed this trend to elevated loss severity and increased claims volatility, which are prompting underwriters to reprice and restructure layers.
The 144A catastrophe bond market also remained active during this period. By the end of 2024, the market had seen the issuance of 67 catastrophe bonds, placing $17 billion in total limit.
Reinsurance capital ended 2024 at a record $607 billion. Guy Carpenter projects capital to grow a further 5% to 7% by the end of 2025. This expansion reflects continued investor confidence in the sector and is expected to support ample capacity for both property and casualty reinsurance, including for renewals in early 2026.
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