Councils across New Zealand are expressing concern about the growing amount of time communities are spending under states of emergency, as new analysis points to a sustained rise in severe weather events and related disruptions.
Data compiled by economic consultancy Infometrics shows that New Zealand has been under declared states of emergency far more often in the past decade than in the decade before. Over the last 10 years, the country has averaged 55.9 days a year under a State of Emergency, increasing to 66.6 days a year on average over the most recent five-year period. That compares with an average of 13.4 days per year in the 10 years prior. Last year, different regions were under a State of Emergency for 72 days, the third-highest annual total in the past quarter century. Only 2011, which included the Christchurch earthquake response, at 88 days, and 2023, at 91 days driven largely by Cyclone Gabrielle, recorded more days under emergency settings.
Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) president and Gisborne mayor Rehette Stoltz said the figures reinforce the operational load on councils during and after major events. “In times of disaster, it’s local councils that step in to lead the response and recovery efforts in their regions and communities – working alongside Civil Defence, Fire, Police, and other agencies. Councils also help communities prepare for, and recover from emergencies and disasters,” Stoltz said. She noted that Infometrics’ analysis indicates a shift in the nature and frequency of events. “The Infometrics numbers show that previously infrequent weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change, and that those impacts will continue to worsen in the future. In particular, the data shows that over the past five years, 80% of these emergencies were for severe weather or flooding. Decision-makers, including councils, should now be incorporating a more regular expectation of responding to an emergency annually,” she said. For insurers and brokers, more frequent and prolonged emergencies can translate into higher levels of physical damage, disruption to infrastructure, and more complex recovery timelines, especially in regions where repeated weather losses compound underlying vulnerability.
The rising emergency tally comes alongside an overhaul of New Zealand’s emergency management framework and ongoing debate about local government funding settings. Stoltz said repeated weather emergencies can affect transport networks, utilities, and community assets, with flow-on effects for local economies and insurable exposures. She pointed to the government’s Emergency Management Bill, introduced in December, which is intended to respond to recommendations from the Inquiry into the North Island severe weather events of early 2023. “The government’s introduction of a new Emergency Management Bill last December aims to strengthen New Zealand’s emergency management system, enabling the improvements identified by the Government Inquiry into the Response to the North Island Severe Weather Events of early 2023. We welcome this new legislation which will provide more clarity about roles and responsibilities at the national, regional, and local levels, to ensure faster decisions are made by the right people,” Stoltz said.
However, Stoltz warned that without additional central government funding, some councils may struggle to meet higher standards. “However, we’re concerned about the impacts new minimum standards could have for some communities without greater funding support from central government, and LGNZ will be making a submission on this to government shortly,” she said. She also raised the link between financial settings and recovery speed. She said community expectations after events such as Cyclone Gabrielle include rapid reinstatement of core services and assets, and that funding mechanisms need to align with those expectations.
At the same time, the coalition government is advancing a policy to limit annual rates increases to 4%, while signalling that councils will be able to exceed the cap in specific circumstances, including major weather events and other large shocks. Local Government Minister Simon Watts has said the cap is being designed with built-in flexibility. He has indicated that the regime is expected to allow exceptions where councils face “unforeseen and urgent” pressures, with examples including natural hazards, global economic crises, and other significant events.
For local authorities, one question is whether the exemption framework will be broad and swift enough to support emergency response, recovery, and resilience investment, particularly in areas hit repeatedly by storms or floods. Stoltz has cautioned that a strict rates band could constrain the ability of some councils to “bounce back” after a major event unless the variation process is both workable and fast. From an insurance industry perspective, the outcome of the rates cap design will influence how much local co-investment is available for flood defences, stormwater systems, and other mitigation projects that affect risk profiles, reinsurance needs, and long-term insurability.
The local government and funding debates are unfolding against a backdrop of climate risk assessments that project rising weather-related losses and concentrated exposure in specific parts of the country. Vero Insurance’s second Climate-Related Disclosures Report projects that, in the absence of substantial mitigation, average annual losses from extreme weather could increase by roughly 19% to 26% by around 2050. The insurer attributes the rise mainly to sea-level changes and more frequent surface water flooding and identifies the South Island as an area with elevated exposure.
The report also highlights that a relatively small proportion of properties account for a large share of modelled losses. Less than 1.5% of insured coastal properties are projected to account for all modelled coastal inundation losses, while under 2% of inland properties are linked to 30% of forecast flood-related losses. For insurers and reinsurers, that pattern raises issues around granular pricing, accumulation management, capital allocation, and the treatment of higher-risk segments within both personal and commercial portfolios.
Vero’s analysis is broadly consistent with a national study led by Earth Sciences New Zealand, which estimates that more than 750,000 people currently live in areas exposed to flooding from one-in-100-year rainfall events. Under a scenario of an additional 3 degrees Celsius of warming, that number could exceed 900,000. The study puts current building asset exposure to such events at about $235 billion, rising to approximately $288 billion under the higher warming scenario, and identifies significant exposure for roads, stormwater pipelines, and national grid infrastructure.
