While Wellington is long seen as New Zealand’s quake capital, a new report presented in the capital on Friday warns of an increasingly probable “worst-case” disaster scenario for Auckland – driven not by seismic activity, but by climate change.
The findings were shared by Dr Joanna Aldridge, group head of catastrophe research at global insurer QBE, during a briefing with insurance industry professionals. Her presentation was based on a research paper co-authored with Dr Rob Bell of adaptation consultancy Bell Adapt, and commissioned by QBE to help insurers better understand emerging climate risks in New Zealand.
The paper outlines how climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events – particularly short bursts of heavy rain, river and coastal flooding, and possibly more frequent landfalls by ex-tropical cyclones, according to a report by The Post. While confidence in rainfall and flooding projections is high, the outlook for cyclone frequency remains uncertain due to limited historical data.
Still, the researchers warn that a powerful ex-tropical cyclone directly striking Auckland – with winds surpassing building code design thresholds and accompanied by sustained rainfall – could be among New Zealand’s most severe future climate risks. And as the climate warms, such a scenario is becoming more plausible.
According to the paper, this “presents a conceivable worst-case scenario climate peril for New Zealand that is becoming more probable with climate change.”
Although QBE does not insure residential properties, the insurer funded the report to support broader industry risk planning, The Post reported. It points to opportunities for insurers, local governments, and communities to reduce exposure – such as improving building code standards for wind resilience and better integrating climate adaptation into property planning.
That gap is becoming more urgent. The 2023 Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle triggered insured losses exceeding $2 billion each – dwarfing the previous weather-related record of $171 million from a 2019 hailstorm in Timaru.
According to ALdridge and Bell, these events demonstrate the unpredictable nature of weather extremes influenced by climate change. Insurers relying on historical data, they warned, are increasingly exposed to risks outside their past experience.
For comparison, the Canterbury earthquakes of 2011 caused $22.8 billion in insured losses, while the 2016 Kaikōura quake cost $2.27 billion, The Post reported. A 2017 study found no long-term trend of increasing weather-related claims, but the QBE paper notes a recent shift suggesting such losses are rising.
Looking ahead, the researchers predict a growing threat of river flooding, particularly in northern and southeastern parts of the country, where extreme rainfall is likely to increase. Coastal inundation is expected to pose a major risk to thousands of properties by 2050 or 2060, according to The Post.
Paradoxically, despite heavier rain in some regions, the eastern flanks of the Southern Alps and other areas could face more frequent droughts, pointing to a future of both wetter and drier extremes.
The paper concluded that insurers face a dual challenge: accurately assessing weather risk in a country where such perils have traditionally been secondary, and addressing affordability issues as premiums rise to reflect growing exposure – especially for homes in flood-prone and low-lying coastal areas.
