CatIQ has revised its industry loss estimate for the flash flooding that hit southern Ontario in mid-July 2024, lowering the total insured losses to $899 million.
The Toronto-based catastrophe insurance data provider, a subsidiary of PERILS, issued its fifth loss estimate nearly a year after the event. The updated figure marks a drop from the previous estimate of $991 million released in January 2025.
The estimate includes claims across residential and commercial property as well as motor vehicles, along with additional loss adjustment expenses. Personal property accounted for the bulk of claims, representing more than 85% of total claims and over 75% of total losses.
The flooding, which occurred between July 15 and 16, 2024, followed heavy rainfall across the region, including Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area. Rainfall totals surpassed 120 mm in several locations, with Toronto Pearson Airport recording 123 mm over two days. The weather event was influenced by a stationary boundary extending from northern Quebec to Colorado, drawing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
A final industry loss estimate is expected to be released on July 16, 2026, in line with CatIQ’s two-year post-event reporting schedule.
Speaking on the updated figures, Caroline Floyd, director of CatIQ, noted that while the number of personal claims had slightly declined, the incurred costs had fallen more sharply.
“The one-year data shows a modest decrease in the number of personal claims but a noticeable drop in the incurred costs, along with a corresponding decrease of about nine percent in the average personal claim size,” Floyd said.
“That suggests that, in addition to companies releasing reserve amounts, some claims may have been feeling the effects of policy and coverage limits as they’ve been resolved. With about 90 percent of total claims reporting as closed as of the one-year mark, it will be interesting to see if those yet-outstanding claims follow the same trend by the final loss estimate issued next year.”
