Trade volatility and tariff-driven supply chain changes are beginning to reshape risk patterns for marine insurers, with investment-led nearshoring across North America potentially shifting cargo exposures away from ocean transport and toward rail and cross-border trucking over the next several years.
According to Mike Nukk (pictured), head of marine at global specialty MGA Rokstone, the combination of tariffs, geopolitical volatility, and industrial investment is already influencing how goods move between the US, Canada and Mexico. The longer-term impact, he told Insurance Business, could be a structural shift in the insurance exposures tied to global trade.
“If manufacturing investment in the US, Canada and Mexico continues, we may see fewer ocean imports and more cross-border rail and trucking shipments,” Nukk noted, adding he expects the next three to five years to reveal whether the shift becomes permanent.
“If those investments continue and supply chains regionalize, we could see a meaningful change in global cargo flows,” Nukk said. “That would have implications not just for shipping volumes but for the entire insurance ecosystem that supports global trade.”
According to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global trade growth slowed significantly during recent tariff disputes, with container shipping patterns shifting toward regional supply chains rather than long-haul intercontinental routes.
The past year of tariff-related uncertainty has forced North American cargo owners, logistics providers, and other firms in the shipping ecosystem to reassess their operations. Companies initially responded by accelerating shipments or consolidating cargo to hedge against potential tariff increases, creating temporary accumulation risks in warehouses and ports.
“We saw clients front-loading shipments and stockpiling ahead of tariff deadlines,” Nukk said. “From an insurance standpoint, that created higher accumulation values in storage facilities and required careful attention to policy limits and declared values.”
Trade volatility has also altered shipping patterns. Companies seeking to avoid tariffs or mitigate risk have increasingly diversified their supplier base and adjusted their logistics routes, creating unfamiliar exposures for insurers. Changes in ports of entry, shipping lanes or consolidation practices can increase exposure to cargo theft, delays and accumulation events.
While many businesses initially treated tariff responses as short-term adjustments, Nukk believes the persistence of trade tensions is pushing companies toward longer-term supply chain restructuring.
North America’s integrated supply chain makes nearshoring relatively straightforward. Trade between the U.S., Mexico and Canada surpassed $1.8 trillion in 2023, according to the US Census Bureau, underscoring the scale of cross-border freight already moving within the region.
At the same time, major manufacturing investment programs (particularly in automotive, electronics and semiconductor supply chains) are accelerating domestic and regional production capacity. Analysts expect this trend to reinforce shorter supply chains across North America.
One of the clearest signals of changing supply chain behavior is demand for different types of coverage. Nukk said Rokstone has observed increased purchasing of domestic transit insurance, including policies covering trucking fleets and auto-hauling operations. Such coverage protects goods once they leave ports and move inland through distribution networks.
“That increase in domestic transit insurance tells us something is changing,” he said. “If factories are closer to home, cargo moves shorter distances internationally but more frequently within North America.”
The automotive sector has emerged as an example, according to Nukk. Tariffs affecting vehicle components and manufacturing inputs have encouraged manufacturers to reconsider sourcing strategies and production locations.
As a result, insurers are seeing higher volumes of domestic trucking and cross-border freight movements linked to auto manufacturing supply chains. “Parts or vehicles that used to travel longer distances internationally may now move between facilities in the US, Mexico and Canada,” said Nukk.
The evolving logistics landscape presents both opportunities and challenges for marine insurers.
Traditional marine cargo policies cover goods from origin to destination, including ocean transport, port storage and inland delivery. If cargo volumes shift from ships to trucks or rail, insurers must adjust underwriting models to account for different perils.
Cross-border trucking, for example, introduces risks such as highway accidents, theft, and infrastructure congestion that differ from those of ocean transit.
Port congestion and customs delays are another concern. Tariff complexity can slow cargo clearance, increasing the time goods remain in storage, raising risks of spoilage, theft or weather damage.
In addition, climate-related catastrophes such as hurricanes and flooding can amplify accumulation risks when cargo volumes concentrate at specific ports or warehouses.
“There may be fewer ocean shipments, but more cargo moving on land,” Nukk said. “That means insurers need to think about rail risk, trucking risk and cross-border exposures that weren’t as prominent before.”
