This article was produced in partnership with FM
While Gene Kelly danced through puddles with joy, commercial property owners might feel more like battening down the hatches. This winter, Australia’s inland regions are tipped for above-average rainfall — and it’s no musical.
The Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) long-term forecasts for Australia present a complex risk landscape for the winter months ahead. At FM, this seasonal outlook is viewed as critical intelligence for commercial property owners seeking to build resilience against weather-related exposures.
The BoM predictions for June to August 2025 indicate above-average rainfall for much of inland Australia alongside very likely warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the continent. The forecast presents specific challenges for commercial property managers across different regional zones.
This winter, the weather won’t wait and FM is advising commercial property owners to act now. By tuning into detailed climate outlooks and implementing tailored risk management strategies, businesses can avoid costly disruptions and stay resilient amid shifting weather extremes.
Here's a breakdown of what to expect and how to prepare.
The June to August forecast shows a significant shift in rainfall patterns, with above-average precipitation likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of inland Australia, parts of the south and far eastern Australia including the Northern Rivers region of NSW. This represents a notable change from typical coastal concentration patterns.
Commercial properties in these inland areas should prioritise drainage system maintenance and flood preparedness measures, as increased winter rainfall could strain infrastructure not typically designed for higher precipitation volumes. FM has also highlighted the lack of a national flood database as an extra obstacle to resilience.
Conversely, businesses in parts of south-west Australia and southern Victoria face below-average rainfall prospects (60 to 80% chance), creating different risk profiles around water management and potential drought-related operational challenges.
Much of western WA and eastern Australia can expect rainfall within the typical range for June to August. The tropical north enters its dry season, when most areas typically receive very low rainfall, with average precipitation less than 10mm for the three-month period combined.
Commercial operations relying on outdoor activities or with temperature-sensitive processes face significant challenges, with the forecast indicating most of Australia will experience warmer-than-average days and nights from April to June. There's a high chance (60% to greater than 80%) of unusually high daytime temperatures across the country, meaning businesses should prepare for additional energy costs due to higher air conditioning usage.
The eastern states and parts of the Kimberley in Western Australia are particularly likely to see these higher temperatures. Nights won't offer much relief either, as above-average minimum temperatures are very likely across almost all of Australia. Commercial operations running around the clock should prepare for increased power usage for refrigerated cooling systems and temperature-controlled locations.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Australia continue breaking records, with April 2025 recording the second warmest April since observations began in 1900, at +0.62°C above the 1991-2020 average. Since July 2024, SSTs have consistently ranked as either the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month.
Weekly analysis during May showed warmer than average waters around most of Australia's western, southern and eastern coastlines, with broad areas up to 2°C above average, reaching up to 3°C above average in areas south-west of Australia and localised areas in the Tasman Sea.
These persistently elevated temperatures provide increased atmospheric moisture and energy that can influence storm severity and weather system intensity. For commercial properties, this sustained marine warming pattern indicates continued potential for weather-related disruptions throughout the winter period.
FM's risk engineers emphasise that the sustained nature of these sea surface temperature anomalies requires enhanced severe weather preparedness protocols for commercial properties, particularly in coastal regions.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the Bureau's model predicting neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least October. This outlook aligns with forecasts from a range of international models, though there is larger spread in model forecasts towards the end of the outlook period, indicating greater uncertainty beyond winter.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently maintains neutral status. The Bureau's model predicts neutral IOD conditions until at least July, after which forecasts suggest a shift towards a negative IOD pattern. This outlook is consistent with seven of eight international models assessed, which also forecast a negative IOD developing between June and September.
However, IOD forecast skill at this time of year has historically been low beyond one to two months ahead, adding uncertainty to longer-term planning. While these neutral to negative conditions suggest no extreme positive climate drivers are active, the combination of elevated temperatures and regional rainfall variations remains significant for commercial property risk assessment.
In practical terms, this forecast suggests a season of contrasts. While much of Australia will see typical rainfall, certain areas will experience wetter conditions, particularly in the early part of the season. At the same time, warmer-than-average temperatures will dominate, making for a balmy few months.
FM recommends commercial property owners take proactive steps to mitigate potential risks:
Property managers should stay updated with the Bureau's daily forecast updates to make informed decisions and adjust plans as conditions develop. Whether managing a retail location, an office building or an industrial facility, being prepared is the best way to ensure operations can weather whatever Mother Nature has in store.
So, keep an eye on the weather, and ensure commercial properties are ready for the season ahead. With the right preparation, property owners can keep humming a happy tune — and navigate the season with confidence and resilience.
