Fire agencies in Victoria have declared a Total Fire Ban (TFB) across most of the state for Feb. 11 as hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected to push fire danger into the “extreme” range in multiple districts. The TFB covers the Mallee, Wimmera, North Country, North Central, Central, North East, and West and South Gippsland fire districts, where an extreme fire danger rating is forecast. Only the South-West and East Gippsland districts are expected to record a high, rather than extreme, rating.
Under a TFB, no fire may be lit in the open air or allowed to remain alight from 12:01am to 11:59pm in affected districts. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) expects Melbourne to reach 32 degrees on Feb. 11 before a cooler south‑westerly change moves through between midday and 2pm. Northern inland centres are forecast to be hotter, with Mildura tipped to hit 40 degrees, Echuca 39 degrees, and Bendigo 36 degrees. In Gippsland, Bairnsdale is forecast to reach 37 degrees, with 5mm to 15 mm of rain possible later in the day. BoM meteorologist Kevin Parkyn said the interaction of wind and dry fuels is shaping the risk profile. “It’s the hot north-westerly winds in combination with the parched landscape that’s elevating the fire danger risk across Victoria. We’re forecasting north-westerly winds of about 30 to 40 km/h with stronger gusts over north-western Victoria and central parts, including Melbourne,” Parkyn said, as reported by 9News.
Authorities say the current fire‑weather pattern follows a period of limited rainfall and drying vegetation, with implications for both emergency services and insurers monitoring the potential for ignition and loss. Victoria has recorded its driest start to the year since 2009, with most rainfall stations reporting less than 10 mm last month. Country Fire Authority (CFA) chief officer Jason Heffernan said this has resulted in dry fuel loads across a wide area of the state. “The fuel is very dry, the bush, the grasslands are very dry, and there’s much bush and grass across Victoria that hasn’t been subject to the last round of fires, so the risk is real. The risk is absolutely there. We’re asking people in affected districts to strictly follow the conditions of the Total Fire Ban and think carefully about how the increased fire risk could affect them. Make sure your fire plan is up to date and covers all possible scenarios,” Heffernan said.
The North East district is already under a TFB due to hot, dry conditions and moderate westerly winds. Parkyn described Wednesday’s conditions as a “one day wonder,” with Melbourne’s maximum expected to drop by about 14 degrees to 18 degrees on Feb. 12 as a cooler air mass moves across the state. Three named fires – the Walwa, Longwood, and Otways fires – remain in Victoria but have been contained.
For insurers, the latest increase in fire danger follows a bushfire event that has already produced a large volume of claims in Victoria. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has estimated that fires burning in parts of the state since Jan. 7 have led to more than $200 million in insured losses across 3,123 claims as of Jan. 28. The claim count spans home, motor, commercial, and business interruption policies, with about 30% of property claims assessed as total losses. Insurers have deployed staff in several communities, including Castlemaine, Harcourt, Natimuk, Seymour, Skipton, and Yea, to help policyholders lodge claims, arrange temporary accommodation and begin recovery activities. Additional claims are expected as roads reopen and access improves. The Victorian bushfires are part of a broader sequence of recent natural peril events, including ex‑Tropical Cyclone Koji in Queensland and storms across multiple states, adding to catastrophe‑related costs in the 2025–26 financial year.
The fires are also feeding into a wider discussion about affordability and availability of cover in hazard‑exposed regions. Rate increases in high‑risk bushfire zones, particularly in regional areas, are affecting some households’ ability to maintain comprehensive insurance. In Harcourt in central Victoria, differences in coverage levels between neighbouring homes have emerged as an example of diverging insurance outcomes.
Castlemaine-based lawyer Zoe Edquist said the longer‑term issue is how communities in high‑exposure locations will manage insurability as premiums adjust to repeated events. She said the affordability of insurance in the future was a “real worry” and warned that current trends “may also result in a lot of properties being uninsurable, and that’s not just here, but anywhere that’s got a realistic risk of flood or fire.” Edquist has suggested policy responses such as targeted subsidies or tax settings that allow premiums for high‑risk properties to be deducted from taxable income to support ongoing participation in the insurance market. For insurers, the balance between risk‑reflective pricing, customer retention, and regulatory and political scrutiny is expected to remain a focus as recent loss experience and hazard modelling are incorporated into pricing and capital decisions.
