Spatial analysis of the Victorian bushfires suggests asset exposure in key firegrounds is significantly larger than confirmed physical damage and reported insurance losses, with implications for catastrophe modelling and claims planning across the sector. Digital Agriculture Services (DAS) has used geospatial analysis to map farms, buildings, and other structures located in zones where conditions were conducive to rapid fire escalation, with a focus on the Longwood and Yarck regions in central Victoria. According to DAS, more than 2,400 farms and properties and over 6,700 structures in those areas were within zones where any ignition event carried a high probability of developing into a major fire. “These figures represent potential exposure, not confirmed loss. They’re designed to capture where things could go very wrong, very quickly,” said DAS co-founder and CEO Anthony Willmott.
Willmott said the contrast between exposure metrics and current confirmed losses “underscores the devastation of this climate event, and foreshadows that its impact may far exceed current damage estimations.” He added: “Tracking the live and impacted area is valuable. But this kind of analysis is essential for the services supporting the reduction and recovery efforts. When you go deeper into the data, our fire risk index shows that in locations where the probability exceeds 80%, conditions are far more likely to drive rapid spread and severe outcomes.”
For the Longwood fire zone, estimated at about 129,700 hectares, DAS identified 1,926 farms and properties and 5,398 structures at risk within the assessed fire impact footprint. Within that zone, about 41,800 hectares sat in areas where the likelihood of catastrophic fire escalation exceeded 80%, and roughly 18,500 hectares were in areas above the 90% threshold. Land use in Longwood includes more than 103,000 hectares of pasture and grazing and about 5,500 hectares of cropping and horticulture, an exposure mix relevant to agricultural insurers, brokers, and rural lenders assessing property and income risks.
In Yarck, covering about 29,400 hectares, the analysis showed 551 farms and properties and 1,392 structures at risk. Of that area, close to 9,000 hectares fell within zones where the likelihood of catastrophic escalation was 80% or higher, and about 4,400 hectares exceeded the 90% threshold. Land use exposure there includes nearly 22,000 hectares of pasture and grazing and around 2,200 hectares of cropping and horticulture.
DAS said the exposure figures are being updated as incident and satellite data change. The company introduced a near-real-time bushfire monitoring system in early 2025 as part of its broader climate-risk and agricultural analytics. “Knowing where a fire is matters. But knowing who and what sits inside an affected area if conditions escalate is critical for governments, insurers, lenders, and emergency coordinators trying to respond,” Willmott said.
While exposure estimates point to a much larger at-risk footprint, official damage and loss data continue to develop as assessors gain access to affected communities. According to The Guardian’s report, Victoria’s State Control Centre estimates that about 404,000 hectares have burned across 12 major bushfires still active in the state. Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said more than 500 structures have been damaged or destroyed, up from about 350 a day earlier, with further changes expected as assessments continue.
The Longwood fire has burned more than 144,000 hectares within a perimeter of roughly 400 kilometres, affecting Euroa, Yarck, and surrounding districts, and damaging homes, farm outbuildings, power infrastructure, vineyards, cropping land, and livestock operations. The Victorian Farmers Federation has estimated that more than 15,000 head of livestock have died so far, with numbers expected to increase and further culls likely for severely injured animals or those without feed.
In response, the Albanese and Allan governments have announced a $15 million recovery package focused on debris removal and waste management. The Bushfire Cleanup Program allocates an initial $10 million to support uninsured and underinsured residents with the removal of damaged structures and hazardous materials, funded under the Commonwealth‑State Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements. An additional $5 million from the Victorian government will waive waste levies in eligible local government areas and cover landfill operator gate fees, allowing residents to dispose of bushfire waste without charge. Authorities have also activated an Emergency Recovery Hotline on 1800 560 760 to provide information on recovery programs, accommodation options, and clean-up processes, alongside the existing VicEmergency hotline.
General insurers are operating under catastrophe protocols as the bushfires intersect with other severe weather events. Insurance Australia Group (IAG) has set up a mobile claims centre in Seymour to serve customers of NRMA Insurance, CGU, WFI, Rollin’, RACQ Insurance, and RACV. The facility is handling in-person claims, arranging temporary accommodation and coordinating emergency financial assistance, including for policyholders affected by power outages. Major Event Response Teams are visiting impacted communities to assess properties and arrange emergency repairs.
Suncorp has also activated its extreme weather response covering the Victorian bushfires and Ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji. As of 6pm AEST on Jan. 11, the group had received about 80 home and motor claims related to Koji and around 60 home and motor claims linked to the Victorian fires. From its Disaster Management Centre in Brisbane, Suncorp is using satellite imagery to assess damage where access remains restricted and has reported higher bushfire risk across southern Australia, particularly in Victoria. Insurers are using these data alongside on-the-ground assessments to monitor portfolio exposure and emerging loss experience at regional level.
Health insurers are also altering arrangements for members in fire-affected regions. HCF has introduced a disaster relief package for members impacted by the Victorian bushfires and other recent severe weather events. The package includes premium waivers for up to three months for eligible members, the option to suspend cover for up to two years (with no claims payable during the suspension), and access to the HealthyMinds Check-in program, which offers confidential sessions with registered psychologists, including services for teenagers. Eligible members in rural and remote areas can access free 15‑minute online GP consultations through HCF’s telehealth partner GP2U, with appointments available seven days a week. For Australian insurers, reinsurers, and intermediaries, the current Victorian bushfires are likely to influence how such tools are used across underwriting, capital management, and claims, as the sector reassesses bushfire, drought, and flood correlations in a changing risk environment.
