PERILS estimates that Cyclone Alfred has cost the Australian insurance industry a total of $1,877 million in insured property and motor hull losses across Queensland and New South Wales. The final figure, released in the firm’s fourth industry loss report, is based on data supplied by participating insurers and is presented as an industry loss footprint at four‑digit postcode level.
Under PERILS’ Australia coverage definition, the estimate captures only property and motor hull lines. Within the total, personal lines represent about 70% of losses, commercial lines 26%, and motor 4%, indicating the relative impact on household, business and vehicle exposures. The final number compares with earlier PERILS estimates of $2,568 million six weeks after the event, $2,250 million at three months and $1,922 million at six months, showing how claims development and reserving changed over the year following the cyclone.
PERILS said the loss footprint, when used alongside its industry exposure database at matching postcode resolution, is intended for analysis of wind and flood vulnerability for Australian property and motor portfolios and for use in catastrophe model validation, pricing reviews, and reinsurance purchasing. On an as‑if‑today basis, PERILS places Alfred as the largest insured cyclone loss in Australia since Cyclone Debbie in March 2017.
Darryl Pidcock, head of Asia-Pacific and cyber at PERILS, said the structure of the hazard was a key driver of the loss outcome. “Tropical cyclones typically bring very strong winds and heavy rainfall. In the case of Cyclone Alfred, however, wind gusts were not particularly strong and thus the wind alone was not the main loss-driver. Rather it was the mix of prolonged windy weather and heavy precipitation which drove the losses,” he said.
He said this pattern contributed to early uncertainty in reserving. “This unusual cyclone character made loss reserving challenging and insurers chose a cautious approach in the early stages post event, as evidenced by the material reduction from $2,568m after six weeks to $1,922m after six months of the event. Since then, loss development has become much more stable, and losses reduced by a mere 2.3% for our final loss number of $1,877m.”
Pidcock added that the event illustrates why the organisation is expanding its natural catastrophe datasets. “Cyclone Alfred is a good example of our work motivation, namely, to increase data availability for natural catastrophe insurance for the better understanding of natural catastrophe risk. As such, we hope that our loss data for this event, including its development over time, will be of benefit to the insurance industry should a future cyclone event with similar characteristics strike.”
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) characterises Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred (22U) as a long‑duration Coral Sea system that influenced weather over southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from late February to early March 2025. A tropical low formed northeast of Cooktown on Feb. 21, with Alfred named as a tropical cyclone on Feb. 23 while about 320 kilometres northeast of Willis Island.
While well offshore, Alfred intensified to Category 4 strength on Feb. 28, with estimated 10‑minute mean winds of 165 km/h. From March 1, environmental conditions changed and the system weakened, underwent a subtropical transition, and later redeveloped as a tropical cyclone as it curved back toward the coast. Alfred was reclassified as a Category 1 system on the night of March 5, briefly reached Category 2, then weakened again before approaching southeast Queensland.
The system moved slowly near the coast, crossing Moreton Island around 1am AEST on March 8, stalling offshore, and again displaying subtropical characteristics before crossing Bribie Island and moving inland later that day. BoM reports that Alfred produced damaging wind gusts, extended periods of heavy rainfall, riverine, and flash flooding, and coastal erosion across affected regions. Observed wind gusts included 120 km/h at Cape Byron, 107 km/h at Gold Coast Seaway, and 109 km/h at Cape Moreton Lighthouse, with several sites setting March daily gust records. More than 500,000 customers in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales lost power at various points during the event, mainly due to trees and branches impacting overhead lines.
Seven‑day rainfall accumulations to 9am AEST March 10 reached 1,146 millimetres at Upper Springbrook and 1,048.4 millimetres at Lower Springbrook in Queensland, with other locations on the Gold Coast and in northern New South Wales recording more than 800 millimetres. Nambour and Brisbane recorded their highest daily March rainfall totals at current sites, and Brisbane’s daily figure was the highest for the city since Tropical Cyclone Wanda in 1974.
BoM records widespread minor to major riverine flooding across north‑eastern New South Wales and south‑eastern Queensland, including major flooding in the Richmond, Clarence, and Bellinger rivers in New South Wales and the Lockyer, Laidley, and Warrill creeks and the Bremer, Logan, and Albert rivers in Queensland. Large easterly swell generated significant wave heights of 3 to 5 metres along the Sunshine Coast and 5 to 8 metres from Brisbane to the New South Wales border, with maximum offshore wave heights above 10 metres at Tweed Heads, Brisbane, and Coffs Harbour and substantial beach erosion along exposed coasts.
The PERILS estimate for Alfred sits within a wider environment of elevated catastrophe losses highlighted by the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA). Marking one year since the cyclone’s landfall, the council has cited about $1.5 billion in insured losses from Alfred and estimated total economic costs of around $2.7 billion, reflecting both insured and uninsured impacts. Across all severe and catastrophic weather events since 2022, the ICA estimates cumulative insured losses of $15.4 billion and total economic costs of about $28 billion. Large flood events account for $12.9 billion of insured losses and an estimated $23 billion of economic costs. The council has noted that these costs have fallen disproportionately on communities with limited financial capacity, raising concerns about affordability and protection gaps.
The federal government’s National Climate Risk Assessment, released in September 2025, warned that without further adaptation measures, Australia faces a future of more frequent, intense, and costly extreme weather events, alongside higher public spending on disaster recovery. Alfred’s final industry loss footprint gives insurers and reinsurers an additional event for portfolio analysis, including stress‑testing and reviewing catastrophe assumptions.
