Australian insurers are monitoring an extended spell of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and flooding across several states, with ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji and a series of low-pressure systems keeping risk elevated for property, motor, agricultural, and business interruption portfolios.
Forecasts indicate that large parts of New South Wales, Queensland, and other eastern regions are likely to experience more than a week of unsettled conditions, following a period of warmer and drier weather. Sky News weather meteorologist Tamsin Green said the north and east of the country are expected to absorb substantial rainfall as thunderstorms redevelop and intensify. “We could be seeing a lot of rain there across the east… we could see upwards of a good few hundred millimetres developing over the next few days,” Green said. Green also noted the potential for “severe” thunderstorms along the New South Wales–Victoria border, an area that recently endured extensive bushfire activity. For insurers, heavy rain over fire-affected catchments raises the likelihood of flash flooding, debris flows, and runoff-related damage.
The evolving weather pattern is tied in part to ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji, which has already generated widespread flooding across northern and central Queensland. The system is now behaving as a low-pressure circulation drawing in monsoonal moisture. “That’s in part thanks to ex-tropical cyclone Koji, which is more or less just a regular low pressure system at this point, but still with a lot of monsoonal moisture wrapping around the system driving in further spells of heavy rain and thunderstorms to Queensland,” Green said.
Green added that the system is shifting westward and may move into the Gulf of Carpentaria, where it could either strengthen again as a tropical low or weaken and track back east. A broader belt of low pressure across northern Australia also leaves open the possibility of another tropical low forming in the north-west later in the week, potentially bringing increased rainfall around Darwin. “Thanks to everything going on with that broader low pressure system with ex-tropical cyclone Koji… there is the chance of some significant rain. Through to Monday, we could be seeing upwards of 400 millimetres of rain, the bulk of that falling within 24 to 48 hours, so certainly something to watch heading towards the weekend,” Green said.
In Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued major flood warnings for several river systems, including the Isaac River at Yatton and the Mackenzie River at Tartrus, and has highlighted significant flooding on the Flinders and Georgina rivers. Authorities warn that additional falls over saturated catchments may prompt renewed rises on rivers that have remained elevated for days. “This is likely to result in renewed river level rises and flooding. This situation is being closely monitored, and warnings will be updated as required,” the BoM said.
Flood risks remain current for communities including Longreach, Jericho, Stonehenge, Barcaldine, Yatton, Tartrus, and Yaamba. The BoM has reiterated safety advice that is also relevant for claims mitigation and loss-prevention messaging by insurers. “Don't drive, walk, swim, or play in floodwater because it is dangerous. Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams, and waterways. Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don’t drive on flooded roads,” the BoM said.
Sky News weather presenter James Preston said on Jan. 13 that modelling shows Koji’s remnants shifting toward north-west Queensland while continuing to deliver heavy rain. “We are going to see a continuation of pretty strong rainfall throughout Emerald and Rockhampton, and of course, that system is going to keep pushing up to the north-west out towards Burketown. So, expect more heavy rainfall up there in the coming days as well,” he said. The BoM has also signalled a high to very high likelihood of showers and thunderstorms for Townsville, Cairns, and Rockhampton, with the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across parts of central and northern Queensland.
Local authorities report wide-ranging impacts on transport networks, critical infrastructure, and essential services, complicating emergency response and increasing the complexity of insurance claims handling. In Clermont, central Queensland, more than a typical year’s rainfall has fallen in about a week, prompting a flash-flood warning on Jan. 12 as water spread across low-lying areas and local roads. In the Mackay region, Mayor Greg Williamson said parts of the shire recorded up to 700mm in 48 hours, isolating the mountain community of Eungella after damage to its main access road and closure of an alternative route. “That’s a serious amount of rain, and it’s brought with it some flash flooding,” Williamson said, as reported by The Guardian. More than 200 residents are currently cut off, and Williamson said helicopter resupply is likely to be required, with possible Defence assistance depending on the length and scale of the isolation.
Further inland, the coal-mining hub of Dysart and parts of the Pioneer Valley have also been cut off, with some locations losing access to potable water after ground movement affected reservoirs. In north-west Queensland and the Gulf country, councils and graziers have reported substantial cattle losses following weeks of flooding, with further heavy rain forecast around towns such as Richmond. For insurers, the combination of extended rainfall, renewed river rises, infrastructure disruption, and isolation points to a multi-faceted event. Exposures span residential housing, commercial and industrial facilities, mining operations, transport corridors, agricultural production, and livestock, with the potential for prolonged business interruption and access-related delays in assessment and recovery. As systems remain active into the coming week, the sector will be monitoring the development of additional tropical lows and the performance of already stressed catchments.
