Australia’s largest general insurance broker network, Steadfast Group Ltd may have been in the headlines recently for the wrong reasons, but its share price is being tipped for a strong rebound, with analysts at Macquarie Group predicting a 37 per cent upside in its share price over the next year despite a turbulent few months for the company.
Macquarie has reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Steadfast, setting a 12-month price target of $7 — up from the current level of about $5.27. The investment bank said the company’s underlying earnings strength, international expansion, and network scale provide a foundation for long-term growth, even as leadership uncertainty and softer premium cycles weigh on near-term sentiment.
The broker expects Steadfast’s revenue to grow by 12.4 per cent in FY26 and operating earnings by nearly 16 per cent, supported by margin gains and organic volume growth across its network of more than 450 insurance brokerages. That would extend a decade-long trend of double-digit earnings growth since Steadfast listed on the ASX in 2013.
“Steadfast remains fundamentally sound, with scale, diversity, and cashflow resilience that few brokers globally can match,” Macquarie said in its note. It added that the stock is trading at an 8.6 per cent discount to comparable international peers — a reversal from its long-held valuation premium.
Steadfast operates as a network model: more than 450 brokerages across Australia, New Zealand, and parts of Asia and Europe use the group’s buying power, market access, and technology platforms to secure competitive premiums and bespoke products. The company also controls the region’s largest underwriting-agency portfolio, designing niche covers distributed both through its own brokers and independent partners.
For insurers and intermediaries, the Steadfast network represents a key distribution channel. It handles roughly $12 billion in gross written premium annually, according to company filings, and maintains relationships with most major Australian underwriters. The group also owns or partners with ancillary service providers in premium funding, claims management, legal, and risk advisory services.
This scale — coupled with a technology investment program that includes the INSIGHT broking platform — has enabled the group to exert pricing influence while improving compliance and back-office efficiency for its members.
Steadfast’s share price fell sharply in late October after the company confirmed that its founder and managing director, Robert Kelly, had stepped aside pending an independent investigation into a workplace complaint. The board appointed Tim Mathieson as acting chief executive, stressing that day-to-day operations would continue unaffected.
The leadership uncertainty coincided with a softening in the broader insurance sector. Broker margins have come under pressure from subdued rate growth in home, strata and workers-compensation lines, with only personal motor insurance showing notable gains in October, according to Macquarie’s market data.
In addition, Steadfast’s reputation was tested earlier this year after a Four Corners investigation raised questions about transparency in broker remuneration and disclosure practices across parts of the intermediary market. The company has since commissioned a governance review and reinforced its compliance framework.
Despite these challenges, analysts remain upbeat. Macquarie says the company’s disciplined acquisition strategy and gradual move into the U.S. market offer a meaningful long-term opportunity. “Maximising returns on the U.S. rollout is key to Steadfast’s long-term value,” the note said.
The broker projects earnings per share to rise 6.6 per cent in FY26, supported by a fully franked dividend yield of around 4 per cent. Investors are also pricing in the potential for renewed merger-and-acquisition activity — Steadfast has completed more than 100 acquisitions since listing and continues to identify smaller brokerages for consolidation.
For insurers, Steadfast’s performance remains a bellwether for the health of Australia’s intermediated distribution market. Its network handles a significant share of SME and strata placements, and its underwriting agencies often serve as product incubators for emerging risks such as cyber and parametric weather cover.
Brokers operating within or alongside the network will be watching closely how the group manages leadership transition and market perception in the months ahead. While Steadfast’s structural strengths are evident, the sector’s reputational and regulatory headwinds continue to intensify — from the ACCC’s scrutiny of broker conflicts to growing calls for simpler disclosure and clearer client outcomes.
Still, analysts believe the group’s fundamentals outweigh its current volatility. “Steadfast’s diversification across broking, underwriting and support services makes it one of the most resilient plays in the financial services sector,” Macquarie said.
If that resilience holds — and the leadership investigation concludes cleanly — Steadfast may again prove why it remains the benchmark for scale and sustainability in Australia’s broking landscape.
