The year ahead is shaping up as a stress test of Australian businesses’ resilience. The prospect of further interest rate rises – with top economists warning the RBA could move again as early as next month – is already weighing on business loans and mortgage repayments. At the same time, the Trump administration’s capture of Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro has sharpened fears about oil price instability, given the country’s vast reserves and its role in global supply. Any renewed spike in energy and fuel costs will feed straight into local transport, manufacturing and construction margins.
For many SMEs, that combination means higher input costs, tighter cash flow and tougher choices about what they can afford to insure. For brokers, it raises the stakes: clients need more than a renewal – they need a risk strategy that protects their balance sheet and keeps their growth plans alive.
In an interview at the recent NIBA Convention, Prudence Chang (main picture), joint managing director of National Credit Insurance Brokers (NCI), said business owners were already anxious about the next 12 months. SMEs are watching their “back pockets” and wondering what higher borrowing costs and volatile energy prices will do to turnover, profitability and investment in growth. Chang said the biggest worry for SMEs is the uncertainty, not only on the domestic political and economic front, but also globally. The prospect of rate rises locally and an oil price shake-up globally feeds directly into these concerns.
In this environment, brokers who compete purely on premium are on the back foot. The opportunity – and arguably the obligation – is to reposition as risk strategists who can stabilise clients’ cash flow and unlock capital when uncertainty is rising.
That starts with a sharper, more forensic conversation about risk appetite and balance sheet capacity. Rather than just asking what a business can afford this year, brokers can frame the discussion around what volatility a business can realistically absorb in revenue, margins and debtor days.
Practically, that can mean:
Brokers who can quantify these trade‑offs – in cash‑flow, capital and growth terms – are better placed to keep clients appropriately insured when budgets are under pressure and the temptation is to under‑insure or lapse cover altogether.
Against that backdrop, Chang sees trade credit insurance as one of the most powerful – and underused – tools in the market. When customers are nervous about their own buyers’ solvency, they tend to pull back, tighten terms or refuse new opportunities. That might feel safer, but it also chokes growth just when they need it most.
“If we’re able to stabilise the debtor ledger and therefore help secure that business that they are running, they’re able to grow their business in a more secure manner,” said Chang. “That does help them maximise their opportunities moving forward.”
By insuring receivables, brokers can help clients stabilise their receivables book and protect cash flow if customers default under the strain of higher interest costs or rising input prices. That, in turn, allows businesses to extend terms or increase limits to strong buyers with greater confidence, knowing they have a safety net if conditions deteriorate. Insured receivables can also support better banking terms or additional finance, easing some of the pressure from higher borrowing costs.
The same mindset applies beyond trade credit. Whether it’s supply chain, cyber, D&O or property, the broker’s skill lies in turning a vague fear of “a tough year ahead” into a mapped, prioritised risk profile – and then using the insurance market, plus non‑insurance controls, to support sustainable growth rather than retreat. That might mean re‑benchmarking limits against realistic worst‑case scenarios, restructuring programs across multiple carriers to improve capacity and terms, or working with lenders so that covenants, security packages and insurance programs actually reinforce each other.
For brokers, 2026 will reward those who can sit at the strategy table, not just the renewal table. Clients facing rising rates and potential energy shocks are looking for someone who can see past the next premium invoice and into the structure of their balance sheet, their debtor book and their growth plan. Those who can manage that cash‑flow volatility – and show how the right insurance structures release capital for growth – won’t just help businesses weather uncertainty; they’ll help them compete in it.
