New South Wales and Queensland are bracing for another stretch of dangerous fire weather and severe storms as forecasters warn of conditions not seen for several years, prompting school closures, power outages and an escalating insurance toll.
The Bureau of Meteorology has signalled that Wednesday’s hot, dry winds across NSW will push fire danger to its most severe levels since 2023, with a catastrophic rating issued for the Lower Central West Plains and extreme ratings extending through 10 other regions, including Greater Sydney, the Hunter and the Illawarra/Shoalhaven.
The NSW Department of Education has shut 25 schools as a precaution, most of them small or remote campuses considered at heightened risk. Former emergency services minister Steph Cooke told ABC Riverina Breakfast that “most of them are small, isolated schools”, adding the closures were designed to ensure “our children are safe, that our communities are safe because of the bushfire risk.”
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Ms Cooke noted the Riverina’s deteriorating conditions heading into summer. “We cannot forget that October was the driest since 2019, and we know what followed in that year,” she said.
Fire authorities are preparing for the combination of soaring temperatures, severe wind gusts and humidity levels falling well below 20 per cent. The RFS has issued a harvest safety alert for 17 local government areas, warning machinery operators to halt work and reassess conditions.
Superintendent Ben Shepherd said several recent harvest-related ignitions were a warning sign of what the next few days may bring. “These are the worst of conditions because if a fire does start under these conditions, firefighters have little chance of pulling it up,” he said.
Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib said both ground crews and aircraft had been pre-positioned. “I am concerned, but I'm also confident that we've done everything we can in advance,” he said. “By making sure we pre-deployed our RFS and our other firefighters, including fire and rescue. But also in using our assets, such as our Chinook helicopter to hit it as hard and as early as we possibly can.”
RFS spokesperson Greg Allan urged residents to report any sign of fire activity. “So if you do see a fire, please contact Triple Zero straight away and report it,” he said.
In the Central West town of Yeoval, residents have raised alarms over a mobile service disruption coinciding with catastrophic fire danger. Telstra’s temporary outage, linked to upgrading its local base station, has sharply reduced connectivity.Read next: Early broker assessment of Cyclone Fina: Darwin escapes worst-case scenario
RFS Eastern Riverina operations officer Bradley Stewart said families needed to take extra care with children kept at home during school closures. “The last thing we want to see happen is children being left at home on farms or in large lot residential areas … close to dry grass and the parents go off to work,” he said.
Across the border, Queensland is dealing with a series of volatile weather events that continue to create complications for insurers. A prolonged heatwave stretching from the interior to the coast is delivering the highest November temperatures in years, with Brisbane forecast to reach 37 degrees — its hottest November day in seven years.
The heat and humidity have sustained a run of destructive thunderstorms. Earlier this week, supercell storms unleashed giant hail across Brisbane’s northern suburbs and parts of the Sunshine Coast, cutting power to more than 100,000 properties. While crews restored tens of thousands of connections, another 12,000 households lost power on Tuesday night as new storms swept through.
Energy Queensland said the most severely damaged pockets could remain without power into Thursday. “The majority of the remaining south-east Queensland customers are expected to be restored to power by 8pm Wednesday, however some areas of severe damage around Bribie Island and the Sunshine Coast are likely to be without power into Thursday,” a spokesperson said.
The Insurance Council of Australia has declared the event an insurance catastrophe, with more than 16,000 claims lodged across 140 postcodes since Sunday — a number expected to climb as assessments continue.
Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said the unsettled weather would persist. “For communities which have already seen a few days of very strong, severe storms, this is yet another day of unsettled weather,” she said. She added that dangerous winds, heavy rain and further hail remained possible, with temperatures running 3 to 10 degrees above normal across the state.
Forecasters expect a second burst of hot, dry westerlies to sweep NSW on Thursday, again elevating fire danger throughout the Hunter, Sydney and Central Ranges. Parts of Queensland — including the Darling Downs — are also expected to move into extreme fire danger.
While temporary relief may arrive late in the week as slightly cooler inland air pushes east, storms are likely to redevelop over south-east Queensland by the weekend.
For insurers, the convergence of catastrophic fire danger, repeated storm outbreaks and prolonged heat stress is shaping one of the most volatile early-summer periods in several years — with exposure spanning multiple states and major population centres.
