Hong Kong’s property insurance market is projected to expand steadily through 2030, with growth expected to exceed that of the broader non-life sector, according to GlobalData. The research firm forecasts that the market will post a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% between 2026 and 2030, with direct written premium rising from HK$7 billion (US$894.3 million) in 2026 to HK$9.3 billion (US$1.2 billion) by 2030.
GlobalData’s Insurance Database indicates an 8.7% year-on-year increase in 2026, reflecting pricing adjustments and product changes following recent catastrophe losses. Swarup Kumar Sahoo, senior insurance analyst at GlobalData, said property lines are set to grow more quickly than the general insurance book. “The Hong Kong property insurance market is expected to grow during 2026-30 as insurers reprice fire risk, refine catastrophic accumulation, and expand digital distribution. This growth relative to the broader general insurance market’s 6.3% CAGR trajectory implies a stronger expansion profile for property lines,” Sahoo said.
The late-2025 Wang Fuk Court apartment complex fire has become a key loss event for the Hong Kong market, exposing accumulation in high-rise estates and prompting carriers to review underwriting, accumulation management, and operational processes. Repeated typhoons and black rainstorms have also highlighted exposure in dense urban locations and contributed to demand for broader cover and more detailed risk assessment. GlobalData notes that reinsurers absorbed a significant share of recent catastrophe losses, but treaty structures and terms are being revised. Rising fire losses are expected to limit further softening in reinsurance pricing and lead to tighter exposure limits, higher deductibles, and more conservative retentions, particularly for high-rise and renovation risks.
Despite elevated catastrophe payouts and higher loss costs in 2025, GlobalData expects the Hong Kong property segment to remain profitable, with a projected combined ratio of 84.8%. Property damage continues to be a major source of claims pressure in the general insurance portfolio, alongside personal accident and health and liability business. Sahoo said the region’s recent loss experience is feeding into decisions on risk appetite and capital deployment. “While insured losses in Hong Kong were manageable, regional catastrophic events continue to test capacity and accelerate innovation. Insurers are expected to reassess risk retention, reduce capacity for higher-risk profiles, and increase deductibles, especially for high-rise and renovation exposures,” Sahoo said.
Alternative risk transfer is gaining traction in Hong Kong’s property risk financing mix. Authorities have introduced incentives for insurance-linked securities, including extended ILS grant schemes, and are facilitating catastrophe bond issuance to provide additional capacity for typhoon and earthquake exposures. Sahoo said: “Alternative risk transfer and capacity-building will support property risk appetite. Catastrophe bonds will reinforce regional coverage for perils including typhoons and earthquakes, while government incentives on extended insurance-linked securities (ILS) grant schemes and streamlined financing for subcontractors will help stimulate issuance.” Hong Kong’s captive insurance segment is also expected to take on a greater role in corporate property risk retention, particularly for complex commercial risks. At the same time, the implementation of a risk-based capital regime and continued progress on IFRS 17 are intended to shape capital allocation and underwriting discipline, with implications for how carriers price and structure property programs.
On the mainland, GlobalData projects that China’s property insurance market will grow from CNY282.5 billion (US$39.6 billion) in gross written premium in 2026 to CNY380.5 billion (US$53.7 billion) by 2030. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 7.7% over 2026-30. Annual growth is expected to reach 6.1% in 2026, up from 4.9% in 2025, before moderating as the market expands on a larger base. “The China’s property insurance market growth during 2021-25 reflects firm non-life sector performance and balanced product expansion beyond motor. However, GlobalData projects slower growth during 2026-30 but on a significantly larger premium base as penetration deepens. Regulatory agencies have maintained a stable sector outlook by easing capital pressures and backing disciplined underwriting, which should support sustainable growth and pricing adequacy across property lines,” Sahoo said.
The Wang Fuk Court fire has also informed discussions in mainland China by highlighting reliance on estate or contractor cover in cases where households do not hold individual home policies. In response, Chinese property and casualty insurers are introducing inclusive home insurance products aimed at reducing the home protection gap. GlobalData notes, however, that low awareness and underwriting challenges in underpenetrated segments may weigh on near-term growth, pointing to the need for product redesign and targeted education.
Chinese insurers are increasing their use of catastrophe models and data tools in property insurance, spanning earthquake models, sensor networks, satellite imagery, and artificial intelligence. The objective is to improve pricing accuracy, support risk prevention measures, and shorten claims settlement times, including in parametric programs that can trigger near-real-time payments following defined events. Sahoo said regulatory support is shaping the development of weather-risk solutions. “As China’s weather-risk market expands, regulatory approvals for parametric solutions and weather derivatives are likely to increase capacity and spur innovation in property catastrophe protection. The parametric payouts after Typhoon Matmo and Typhoon Ragasa demonstrate that index-based programs can deliver rapid liquidity and help narrow protection gaps for climate-driven perils,” Sahoo said.
Broader innovation in non-life lines aligned with national priorities – such as green energy, high-tech manufacturing, and disaster coverage – is expected to influence property insurance demand. Infrastructure and power projects are adding to demand for property and engineering capacity, while driving more structured approaches to risk management and loss prevention. Looking ahead, Sahoo said: “Property insurance premium growth momentum in China is set to pick up over the next five years. Realising this upside will hinge on closing the home insurance protection gap, embedding catastrophe-risk finance, and maintaining underwriting discipline under a supportive regulatory regime. Technology investments from catastrophe models to AI-enabled claims will help raise resilience and customer confidence during 2026-30.”
