Saudi Arabia’s insurance industry is forecast to experience substantial expansion over the next several years, with gross written premiums (GWP) anticipated to climb from SAR 75.9 billion in 2024 to SAR 129 billion by 2030.
This outlook, detailed in a recent sector analysis by Bupa Arabia, points to health insurance as a primary driver, with premiums in this segment expected to nearly double, reaching SAR 83 billion by the end of the decade.
According to the Saudi Insurance Sector Review 2024, published by Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance, health insurance currently comprises 55% of the total market.
The report attributed the sector’s projected growth to a combination of regulatory initiatives, economic diversification under Vision 2030, and the expansion of digital solutions across the industry.
The review noted that the insurance market has more than tripled in size since 2012, when GWP stood at SAR 21.3 billion.
The acceleration of digital adoption and regulatory reforms following the COVID-19 pandemic has played a key role, with insurers leveraging platforms such as the InsurTech Sandbox and the Nafis platform to enhance operational resilience and service delivery.
Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s national transformation strategy, is channelling significant investment into healthcare, infrastructure, and technology.
These developments are expected to create new avenues for insurance providers, particularly as telemedicine and digital claims processing become more prevalent.
Regulatory changes have also expanded mandatory health coverage to include groups such as domestic workers and gig economy participants, potentially adding SAR 9.4 billion in GWP.
Tourism is another area identified as a growth contributor, with the government targeting 150 million annual visitors by 2030. This influx is projected to generate SAR 4.5 billion in additional insurance premiums, further supporting sector expansion.
Despite the positive projections, the report highlights several challenges. Medical inflation, driven by the adoption of advanced treatments and broader health benefits, is increasing costs for insurers.
Regulatory compliance gaps remain, with some segments of the workforce still uninsured.
The report also noted that smaller insurers may face difficulties adapting to digital requirements, which could result in greater market concentration.
The Saudi insurance market has demonstrated the ability to recover from recent disruptions, such as the introduction of VAT and dependent fees. The number of insured individuals rose to 13.2 million in 2024, up from 12.1 million the previous year.
The inclusion of domestic workers, tourists, and gig economy employees is expected to further expand coverage in the coming years.
The report outlined two scenarios for the health insurance sector through 2030. Under a baseline scenario, the number of insured individuals could reach 15 million, with health premiums totalling SAR 65.2 billion. If regulatory expansion continues, premiums may rise as high as SAR 83 billion.
Nadeem Shahzad, director of customer & market insights at Bupa Arabia, noted that the country’s health insurance sector is undergoing significant growth – largely influenced by the Vision 2030 agenda.
“The combination of strict regulations and effective supervision ensures that this momentum translates into sustainable growth, while digital transformation opens vast opportunities to innovate and enhance customer services,” he said.
He further observed that medical data now plays a central role in shaping healthcare delivery, serving as the basis for developing more precise and effective solutions.
“Value-based care remains the best way to address medical inflation challenges and improve service quality, ensuring the sector’s sustainability and maximizing its contribution to the national economy,” Shahzad said.
On a global scale, medical costs are expected to remain elevated, with the WTW Global Medical Trends Survey projecting a 10.4% increase in 2025.
The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to see medical trend rates rise from 11.9% in 2024 to 12.3% in 2025.
The Middle East and Africa are also expected to experience an uptick, with rates climbing from 10.4% to 12.1% over the same period.
Key factors influencing these trends include the integration of new medical technologies, increased demand for mental health services, and the expansion of telehealth.
Insurers in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East cite advancements in pharmaceuticals and the cost of new technology as significant contributors to rising costs.
The addition of telehealth and wellbeing services is broadening access but also adding to overall expenditure.
